Rus News Journal

Over Europe deflation threat

the Prices has hung can go downwards in 2014

IMF has warned that the countries of a zone of euro, first of all peripheral, can face considerable reduction of prices the next two years. Deflations will manage to be avoided only in the event that ETSB will operate more resolutely, in particular will pump up the European economy money by means of scale buying up of state bonds as it does FRS the USA.

to Europe which continues to roll down in recession, the new trouble - a deflation threatens. there is a big risk that in intermediate term prospect inflation becomes negative - it is told in the IMF report. According to the forecast, the rate of inflation next year will fall to 1,6 % that below target level in 2 %, established ETSB. By the end of 2014 the risk of a deflation will make 25 %. Problem economy it will be even more difficult to them to reduce volumes of a state debt to demanded level as incomes of taxes will decrease will most of all suffer.

Analysts of IMF are assured what to rescue region from a deflation resolute actions ETSB will help. For example, the monetary authorities could declare the program of quantitative softening (many economists are assured that similar measures FRS have helped the USA to recover faster from crisis). The countries of the Mediterranean act For more scale buying up of bonds (Italy, Spain, France).

While, according to IMF, and ETSB it is not enough efforts of EU to cope with crisis. despite a number of political measures, the financial markets in some parts of region are under the big pressure, thereby calling into question viability of all monetary union - it is marked in the report. The majority of investors and economists divide the point of view of IMF. Till now EU operated according to two phases of crisis: negation and the protest. The first assumes a complete negation of scales of a problem and hope that that will appear cyclic. Besides, appears that in all someone is guilty one, for example Greece or Germany. The second is characterised by despair, there is a protest against absence of results. Politicians start to dig even more deeply in a box of special monetary tools and break international law, pretending that has occurred nothing. Voters the voices remove officials and replace with their representatives of opposition who double efforts on to preservation of the person . The third phase - requirement for changes - just ahead - group economist Saxo Bank Stin Jakobsen considers.

Experts, however, doubt that ETSB in immediate prospects will agree on radical measures of stimulation. On July, 12th the chairman of Central Bank Mario of the Drag has declared that There are no signs reductions of prices in an euro zone. According to Bloomberg, since 2010 ETSB has bought state bonds for the sum 212 mlrd euro. Besides, thanks to two operations of long-term refinancing (LTRO) ETSB has poured in in bank system more than trillion euro, and the most part of this money has returned on the markets of state bonds. ETSB which has lowered recently the interest rate to 0,75 %, itself recognises that at it remains not so many means to influence an event. Thus not clearly, taken measures taking into account dissociation of region are how much effective. On periphery shortage of liquidity whereas in other countries of its block it is a lot of is observed. ETSB any more does not want to spend means - has told daily analyst Capital Economics of Jennifer Makkjuen. Itself g - n Drags notices that the monetary policy should not compensate inactivity of other institutes. ETSB wants bolshego - to it it is necessary royal flesh (The bank, economic, fiscal and political union simultaneously) - considers g - n Jakobsen.