At investors has happened sharp prikupIn January at investors surplus of optimism is observed - managing directors wait for restoration of world economy and cease to hold cash in portfolios, the European countries right after find rating decrease wishing to borrow to them under more low interest, and notorious corporation Freddie Mac with success places bonds with a mortgage covering. Last years the January charge of investment vivacity sufficed for some months.
January poll portfelnyh the managing directors, spent by analysts Bank of America (BofA) Merrill Lynch, has shown sharp growth of optimism of investors concerning destiny of world economy. 286 managing directors under which management there were actives for the sum $818 billion have taken part in questioning According to poll, the number of the managing directors, assured that within 2012 rates of economic growth will be accelerated, was actually made even to number of those who waits for world economy delay (number of pessimists of all on 3 % has exceeded number of optimists). In December of mood were much more gloomy: the number of pessimists on 27 % exceeded number of optimistically adjusted investors. So strong change in moods of investors of analytics did not register since May, 2009.
optimism allows investors to take up higher risks. The cumulative indicator of risk and liquidity BofA Merrill Lynch has risen to the highest level since July, 2011, time of the beginning of the sharpest phase of crisis of a sovereign debt. As a result the share of cash managing directors in portfolios has fallen to the lowest level for half a year - 4,4 %.
In such conditions of the country of Europe which agency S &P on Friday has lowered sovereign ratings, quite successfully spend debt loans. Yesterday Spain has placed bills with terms of the reference of 12 and 18 months for the sum ˆ4,88 billion Profitableness of annual bills has made 2,05 % in comparison with 4,05 % month before, profitableness 18 - monthly bills has fallen from 4,226 % to 2,4 %. Greece, conversations on which inevitability of a default do not cease till now, yesterday has placed three-monthly bonds on ˆ1,625 mlrd under 4,64 % (the previous placing has passed on December, 20th under the rate of 4,68 %). France which has lost on Friday the higher rating AAA, on Monday has placed annual bonds on ˆ1,9 mlrd with profitableness of 0,41 % in comparison with 0,45 % at the previous auction.
Optimism of investors has pleasantly surprised also heads of American mortgage agency Freddie Mac (with which problems financial crisis in 2007 has begun), placed on January, 13th ten years` bonds on $3 mlrd with unexpectedly low profitableness - 2,06 % annual. “ how our offer was accepted the market, became for us a pleasant surprise, at initial volume of the offer of $1,5 mlrd we have received demands for $4,5 mlrd “ - quotes Bloomberg senior portfelnogo operating Freddie Mac Mohita Sudhakara who declared yesterday that the agency plans to involve this year with the help sekjuritizatsii mortgage actives of $20 - 40 billion
However, in January investors traditionally look at the world with optimism. If in December funds sum up investment for a year and fix profit or losses in the beginning of year they come back to the market. According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research, funds of category GEM for last seven years (except for 2008) in the beginning of January involved on the average $1 mlrd weekly. “ it is heavy to involve the new client, showing a negative sight at actives which you operate, - director Simargl Capital Dmitry Sadovyj explains. - therefore in the beginning of year managing directors should radiate literally optimism even if within a year it will not justify “. So, in January, 2011 the number of the managing directors assured of growth of world economy on 55 %, exceeded number of those who waited for its delay. In September of pessimists was on 17 % more. Concerning growth of economy of an eurozone of optimists in the beginning of last year was on 44 % more than pessimists. But in November recession expected on 72 % more operating, than counting at least on symbolical growth.
As well as in the end of the last year, for behaviour portfelnyh managing directors situation development in Europe will be defining. An analyst “ Alliance ROSNO management of actives “ Ariel Black notices that the positive data which has left on the past week on economy of Germany and France has undermined confidence of inevitability of recession of an eurozone. And placing in the end of December of last year of money resources ETSB among the credit organisations has removed stress with liquidity (see the inquiry). According to operating portfolio UK “ Gazprombank - management of actives “ Alexander Prisjazhnjuka, “ such policy gives the chance to the European Union “ to buy time “ for the permission at political level of questions of budgetary discipline and the coordination of the all-European position concerning debts “.