“ it is necessary to put the USA on one step with Italy “
Interview to group economist Goldman Sachs Janom Hattsiusom
to change a rating of the USA should be regarded Threat of world rating agencies as the prevention to politicians who should introduce essential corrective amendments in an economic course, group economist Goldman Sachs of JAN HATTSIUS considers. In interview Handelsblatt he has explained, why world economy lifting as a whole was braked.
— G - n Hattsius, threatens a world conjuncture a paralysis, in particular and from - for weaknesses of the USA. What is the matter? After all in the beginning of year all were full of optimism.
— There are reasons which are easily explainable and quite transparent. It is possible to carry to them, say, accident in Japan and shock jump of the prices for oil in view of disorders in the Near East. However it is necessary to recognise that, apparently, consequences have appeared not such and more serious, than that it was possible for itself to present.
— And how you explain it?
— On our estimations, increase of the price for gasoline in the USA should lead to delay of economic growth in the second quarter approximately on 0,5 %. At the same time according to some indicators this figure can reach even 0,75 %. It seems that today the prices for gasoline influence economy of the USA more strongly, than before. One of plausible reasons — the stock of money resources of the population became less, than earlier, and to compensate growth of the price for gasoline at the expense of increase in norm of savings, and keeping a habitual consumption level so simply any more it is not possible. Reliability of forecasts has for the same reason fallen also.
— There is an opinion that it is necessary to expect pressure decrease of the price for oil on an economic conjuncture. You agree with it?
— We assume that in the summer of the price for gasoline in the USA will fall approximately to 10 %. Though all of them equally will above, than in the beginning of year, but their negative influence on a conjuncture all - taki will decrease. However, by our calculations, cost of barrel of oil of grade Brent will rise in the end of the next year to 140 dollars
— Thus, you do not count on long-term effect of use of the USA of strategic stocks of oil?
— the Reason of dearness of oil that the situation with its offer remains strained. We recognise that world demand for oil and will continue to grow further faster, than volumes of its extraction. So in intermediate term prospect it will promote growth of the price for oil. As a result we receive falling of real incomes of the population in the countries of type of the USA where energy spend not so economically, as in Europe and where therefore the rise in prices is felt more painfully.
— Some economists believe that for the USA the big risks proceed from the mortgage market. Whether surprises you new falling of the prices for inhabited real estate?
— in general - that is not present. While all looks how we and assumed earlier, predicting that the prices will decrease this year on 5 %. Besides, it is necessary to watch closely structure of this process. Falling of the prices is characteristic for the compelled sales of real estate, and in other cases they are rather stable.
— whether you Consider possible, what the next one and a half year of the USA will endure new economic recession?
— Exclude it I cannot, but also rather probable I do not consider. We count on strengthening of economic growth in the second half of the year approximately to 3,25 %. However realities are that that after crisis the economy on - former is vulnerable to external shocks. And to interfere with an event the government has less today than possibilities, than during pre-crisis times.
— What so connects to the hand authorities?
— Discount rate already is almost about zero, and the budgeted deficit has come nearer to 11 % from gross national product. Here as - that to react difficult.
— whether it is necessary to expect from FRS the USA the new program on purchase of state bonds?
— I Believe that it is possible to wait for it only in the event that the American economy will appear on the verge of recession or even then when this recession will already begin.
— And what the government of the USA could undertake?
— In our opinion, to begin with to lift the top lath of the sizes of a public debt. Otherwise not to avoid serious consequences. But even taking into account this step till the end of the year it is necessary for it to make the decision on prolongation of tax privileges and unemployment benefits. Otherwise economic growth in the country will be braked.
— But limps after all not only America. The problems and at Asia. How all it affects a world conjuncture?
— Really, from - for increases of the interest rate growth in China weakens. However we believe that by the end of the year the local Central Bank will release reins. Then also economic growth again will gain in strength. Another matter — India. While rates of increase there again will increase, it is necessary to wait, most likely.
— whether It is possible to consider the USA as the unreliable debtor?
— While the USA have the highest rating estimations. However the forecast of agency S &P, Moody ’ s and Fitch have changed on negative as doubt available the USA political will for realisation of measures of economy. If to take objective indicators of type of a state debt at a rate of almost 92 % from gross national product or budgetary deficiency at a rate of almost 11 % rating estimations should be, of course, worse. According to analysts Societe Generale and ING, proceeding from such indicators of the USA followed put on one step with Italy.
— Why the USA the rating till now is not lowered?
— They carry out flexible percentage and monetary to the policy and for service of dollar debts can print all new dollars. The contribution of the USA as largest economy of the world in global gross national product makes almost 25 %. The economy of the USA is competitive and universal. Besides, now at inflation in 3 % and profitablenesses of state bonds with term less than ten years below 3 % the government in a reality of any percent does not pay.
— When the USA will lose the rating AAA?
— And here it already “ a question on trillion dollars “ as tells Kiaran About ’ Hagan from Societe Generale. Many analysts regard a step of rating agencies as the prevention to politicians who should change an economic course. By the way, US president Barack Obama already declared budgetary reductions and increase of taxes. According to forecast S &P, probability of that in two years the rating of the USA will be lowered, makes about 33 %.
— why almost any pressure do not test the state bond of the USA?
— Preventions of rating agencies though remind public consciousness of huge debts of the USA, however for professional investors working with state bonds “ they do not bear any new information “ William About ` considers Donnel from Royal Bank of Scotland.
— whether considerable risks in long prospect Threaten the American state bonds?
— Yes, if national economy problems do not dare also rating agencies will really lower the USA the estimations. Then the American state papers will definitively cease to be for all in the world “ smooth water “. “ If the USA do not appear to be bridled in the long term in a condition the state debt it are threatened with loss of trust of investors “ — Thomas Majsner from DZ Bank predicts. According to an analyst, this danger speaks first of all that almost half of debts of the USA — Debts to foreign investors, and foreigners lose patience faster, than investors domestic.
— What prospects exist at dollar?
— In the event that the USA all - taki cannot reduce the debt and their rating will be really lowered, the dollar is threatened with loss of the status of the main world reserve currency. It will lead to sharp falling of market rates. During the nearest time the dollar can feel easy pressure if FRS the USA will keep discount rate in view of crisis on a low level longer, than it is expected. Till now the dollar of problems practically did not test, even for any time amplified. It speaks first of all that during crises many American investors sold the shares in foreign currency that strengthened dollar.