Shareholders of the Savings Bank will become rich
In a decade dividends can grow in times
Following the results of 2020 to shareholders of the Savings Bank can pay dividends in 13 times more, than for last year. Under forecast Goldman Sachs, in nine years the Savings Bank net profit will make 25 mlrd dollars from which about 40 % will go to shareholders.
In the conditions of growth of the market the Savings Bank in 2020 can get profit from above 25 mlrd dollars, consider in Goldman Sachs. Authors of research believe that in nine years shareholders can receive 40 % from organisation net profit as the bank will change dividendnuju a policy. In this case payments minoritarijam will make 10 mlrd dollars instead of 735,6 million dollars following the results of 2010.
the Savings Bank net profit can become the Main driver of enrichment of shareholders, believe in Goldman Sachs. Within this decade the Savings Bank will increase profit in many respects thanks to increase in a credit portfolio which will grow on srednerynochnom level on 18 % a year. “ these are quite real figures, after all before crisis banks increased portfolios on 40 % a year, - the analyst of the company " speaks; Aton “ Ivan Kachkovsky. - Now credits make less than half of gross national product, and in the developed countries - to 100 % “. In the calculations Goldman Sachs predicts growth of a share of credits in gross national product with current 41 to 69 %.
But 18 % are a mid-annual forecast on portfolio growth, after 2014-2015 rates of increase of crediting will be slowed down, consider in Goldman Sachs. From - for reduction of volumes of deliveries of profit more will go on dividends, as a result after 2015 they will gradually raise to 40 % from net profit. “ we have counted up that investments into the Savings Bank can bring 17 % of the average annual income next ten years “ - speak in Goldman Sachs.
Forecasts look optimistically enough, the director of department of bank audit FBK Alexey Terekhov believes. “ growth of profit of the Savings Bank on 40 % means growth of real sector which occupies from the largest bank. Investments into the Russian companies will be hardly so high “ - speaks g - n Terekhov. In its opinion, the change question dividendnoj politicians towards increase in payments with present 12 to 40 % is disputable also.
Calculations Goldman Sachs look realistichnee if to look at financial results of the Savings Bank for the last decade. In 2000 the net profit has made 12,7 mlrd dollars, dividends at a rate of 6 % - 27,06 million dollars On payment of dividends in 2010 has gone 735,6 million dollars, that is the general size of dividends has grown in 27 times. On this background growth of payments in 13 times till 2020 looks quite vypolnimym the scenario.