Debt crisis will change shape of Europe
EU Authorities should cease to give out credits, head PIMCO
the Default of Greece considers it is not necessary to expect, but re-structuring of its debt is very probable, the head of investment fund PIMCO Mohammed considers an ale - Erian. In interview German Handelsblatt the economist has noticed that a main point — how much uporjadochenno this re-structuring will pass. In its opinion, debts of Greece are so great, and economy prospects so are bad that only one decrease in state expenses a problem not to solve.
In opinion g - on an ale - Eriana, despite scale packages of financial support from the European Union, IMF, ETSB and the big material losses of the population of Greece, position of this state now not only worse, than one year ago, but also are worse made then than pessimistic forecasts. The reason that “ help packages “ Do not render influence on roots of the Greek problems, that is financial injections go, and measures on support of economic growth are absent.
According to the forecast g - on an ale - Eriana, re-structuring of debts of Greece it is necessary to expect in the nearest half a year, and he hopes that there will be it in “ to the ordered form, it is similar to how it was earlier in a case with Pakistan or Uruguay “. The markets recognise that “ a pardon of debts “ Greece will reach 50 — 60 % from their present volume.
Concerning prospects of other problem countries, since Portugal and Ireland, head PIMCO has noticed that first of all it is necessary to pay attention to two aspects: rates of increase of national economy and chances to pay off on debts. He has specified that from the point of view of probability of returning of credits position in Greece is worse, than in Portugal and Ireland. Then, with the big separation, in the black list of debtors there is Spain, Italy and Belgium. The most reliable position at Germany, which “ reaps the fruits of the long-term reforms and correct manner with budgetary deficiency “.
Interlocutor Handelsblatt has not excluded that debt crisis is capable to change Europe in any measure. Mohammed an ale - Erian believes that, most likely, the European authorities all - taki should make political decisions instead of constantly giving all new credits. These decisions can lead, on the one hand, to occurrence of the tax union, and with another — to re-structuring of debts and, probably, to some reduction of the currency union.
it is necessary to watch closely a financial condition of Europe extremely. By words the ale - Eriana, in Greece volume of contributions of citizens has already decreased on 10 %, and this process tends to acceleration. It can lead to a collapse of all bank sector if crowds of people suddenly rush to draw out money from the accounts. As a result to the country threatens deep financially - an economic crisis. An example of approach similar “ uncontrollable insolvency “ the situation in Argentina in December, 2001 is.
In connection with ambiguity of that role which in destiny of the problem countries is played now by world rating agencies Moody ’ s, S &P and Fitch, g - n an ale - Erian has underlined that PIMCO makes own ratings and considers as their more authentic. Thus he has specified that supervising departments have allowed traditional rating agencies to occupy a leading position, and a question who supervises in the market and estimates these agencies, remained without the answer.