Lombard Odier: to Solve euro or dollar is how to choose between two ugly sisters
Against crisis in an eurozone and in the USA the most attractive to investors there will be developing countries, mainly Asian, and in long-term prospect - and African. The head of department of debt tools of bank Lombard Odier Stefan Mone has told about it to the correspondent daily to Tatyana Glazkovoj. Besides, he has told about the first successes of the Swiss Central Bank on easing of a rate of national currency, and also about why the idea of gold franc now is not actual.
- the Swiss Central Bank has dared recently at a courageous step and has established limiting border of a course of franc to euro. How much successful there can be this measure and whether is the course 1 евро:1,2 franc, in your opinion, adequate?
- First of all, the measures accepted by the Central Bank, have appeared successful, at least at present. If I am not mistaken, now we are at level 1,2867. Today, when the situation develops very difficult, ability of the Central Bank to keep a franc course at this level depends on the eurozone future as a whole. Because if the situation will be aggravated, to bank will keep very difficult and very expensively franc at level 1,2 because, having accepted obligations about unlimited intervention, the bank risks to have unlimited losses. This courageous, but very difficult decision. It seems to me that in spite of the fact that the first weeks were quite successful while it is up to the end not clear, whether can keep the Central Bank this course in long-term prospect. It on the one hand depends on strategy of the bank, with another - from a situation in an eurozone. Serious crisis for certain will provoke outflow of the capital from an eurozone, including to Switzerland.
- Some experts are afraid that Central Bank actions can lead to inflation growth in the country. Whether you divide these fears?
- In Switzerland now above risk of a deflation. Before these measures have been accepted, forecasts on a rate of inflation were very low, that is, as a matter of fact, the risk of inflation now in Switzerland is not present.
- Now in the market hearings about returning possibility to the gold standard in Switzerland actively circulate. At least, with such offer some local politicians recently have acted. Whether has sense introduction of gold franc?
- it is probable, it now not the most optimum currency. The gold dollar would be, in my opinion, more interesting. After cancellation of Bretton - Vudsky system in 1970 - h, gold standards are not present more, the currency is not provided any more by gold reserves. It has given the chance to develop crediting and has led to excessive growth of a debt of the developed countries. Therefore if the disbalance in economy does not manage to be overcome, maintenance of national currency with gold or other valuable metals will be one of tools of regulation of growth of credits. It in any situation will allow to limit crediting volumes. Debts level is in Switzerland at admissible level, therefore the gold franc is irrelevant.
- Gold and silver always were great friends of investors. Now interest to gold is especially great. Whether will result growth of the price for yellow metal in a new bubble?
is a sign of the big unwillingness to risk. Investors are too careful and even are frightened by adverse conditions in the markets, they buy the most reliable actives. Gold, the Swiss franc and Japanese yen for Japanese investors became historically such actives. The price for gold has very strongly grown since 2005, and the gold future strongly depends on the general economic conditions. If the situation in an eurozone is not resolved, will arise additional socially - political risks, the price for gold will continue to grow. On the other hand, at positive succession of events, the price, certainly, will decrease.
- Both Europe, and America cannot recover till now from crisis. Whether means it, what investors should turn away for a while from these countries?
- I Think, fundamental bases of the European economy substantially more reliable, than bases of economy of the USA. But in an eurozone there are two problems. In - the first, inefficient political institutes, in the USA they function much better. In Europe we see constant attempts to solve debt problems at bilateral level, g - nom Sarkozy and g - zhoj Merkel whereas actually it should be engaged g - n in Barroso and g - n Rompej. And in the USA there is a uniform voice. Therefore Europe suffers more. In - the second, very big differentiation between the centre and EU periphery. Economic bases of Germany, Austria, Finland strongly differ from bases of economy of Portugal or Greece. Therefore У an eurozone kernel У more strongly, than the USA, and periphery, on the contrary, more poorly.
- What countries are the most attractive to investors?
- We are much more interested in emerging markets. To solve euro or dollar is how to choose between two ugly sisters. To me any variant is not nice. I would prefer a basket of currencies of developing countries more likely. We with interest look at Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia. The greatest economic potential Asia possesses, therefore we recommend to our clients to direct the investments there. It is China, Indonesia, Malaysia both in intermediate term, and in long-term prospect. In long-term prospect Africa is interesting also: Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya. We see in them potential of years through 15 - 20.