Rus News Journal

Ratings of mass defeat

Standard and Poor’s has congratulated a zone of euro on old New year of crisis

November announcement Standard and Poor’s about deprivation of France of rating AAA, disavowed then agency­, was not an error, and only an anticipation of events. On the night of old New year S &P declared decrease in a credit estimation of France, Italy, Austria, Spain and five more countries of a zone of euro. From - for revision of ratings resources European stabfonda will be almost exhausted, and China can reconsider structure of the reserves, analysts predict.


For the first time since 1975 France has lost the higher credit rating - it has fallen on one step, to AA +. To the same mark the estimation of Austria has fallen also. The forecast on both countries negative that means 30 - percentage probability of the further fall of credit ratings this or next year. Germany now the unique ­ country in a zone of euro with the higher rating AAA which does not cause at S &P any doubts. The higher estimations were kept also by Finland, Holland and Luxembourg, however the forecast on them negative. On one step ratings of Malta (to And-), Slovakia (and Slovenia (And +) are lowered. At once credit quality of bonds of Italy has fallen to two points (BBB +), Spain (Portugal (BBB) and Cyprus (BB +).

the Surprise step S &P did not become. “ all of us knew that S &P was going to start up the axe in business, but it has occurred a bit faster, than it was expected “ - analyst Caxton FX Richard Drajver has declared Reuters. S &P has warned the countries of a zone of euro about possible falls still one month ago when on December, 5th has placed on revision with the negative forecast credit estimations practically all (except for two) the countries of the currency union. This step became biggest in the history of the American credit agency.

As well as in December, last statement of agency has been made during the moment when passions round debt problems have started to cease. In particular, rates on a state debt of Italy and Spain last week aloud enough decreased that has allowed them to let out state bonds for a total sum 26,75 mlrd euro under rates on 0,8-3 percentage points more low, than investors for similar papers at the previous auctions have paid. “ this decision can prevent positive shifts which we observed in Europe the last some weeks. It, in my opinion, the main danger “ - has commented on step S &P a member of operating council ETSB Evald Novotny.

hearings about revision of the European ratings have extended some hours prior to the official announcement. The euro has fallen in price to the American currency more than on 1 %, to minimum for last 16 months of level in 1,2665 dollars Analysts UBS on Saturday have advised to the clients to put on the further easing of uniform currency. The stock market has reacted to statement S &P falling, and profitableness of state bonds of the countries which have suffered from revision slightly - within 15 basic points, has grown up. However, according to participants of the market, ETSB has supported the Italian ­ and Spanish state papers. Profitableness of German papers has updated record minima. Probably, the effect from actions S &P will clear up today when France will sell bonds on 8,7 mlrd euro. According to JP Morgan, loss by nine countries of the higher rating during the period with 1998 - go till August, 2011 on the average led to profitableness growth of all on 2 basic points in following the statement of agency week.

German chancellor Angela Merkel in reply to actions S &P has urged the European colleagues to double efforts under the permission of debt crisis. “ The decision has strengthened my belief that to us still much should be made, before the trust of investors " will return; - has declared g - zha Merkel. In its opinion, it will be promoted by revision of the European legislation which will allow the financial ­ and insurance companies to estimate independently quality of financial tools, without resorting to services “ the big three “ agencies. The president of France Nicolas Sarkozy did not begin to make comments directly on decision S &P, having stopped in the speech on struggle against crisis as a whole. “ this test and consequently we should face it, we should resist, we should struggle “ - he has called Frenchmen.

WILL suffer ALL

France to which this year should let out state bonds on 220 mlrd euro, and personally Nicolas Sarkozy actions S &P promise the big troubles. In three months in the country presidential election, and g - n Sarkozy justified unpopular measures on reduction of state expenses and increase of taxes by necessity to defend the higher credit rating. Nevertheless even before decrease in a rating the working president lagged behind in popularity the main competitor Francois Ollanda. Besides it, loss of the higher rating by France will change balance of forces of uniform Europe in favour of Germany. “ it can make the further negotiations on budgetary integration by even more difficult “ - the main European economist RBS Jacque Kajlu has noted in the report.

Italy becomes the Second large victim of revision of a rating. “ it remains to one of the most vulnerable economy in a zone of euro from - for huge volume of a debt which it is necessary for it refinansirovat this year, and from - for threats of the rigid recession aggravated with measures of economy “ - operating director Spiro Sovereign Strategy Nicolas Spiro has written in the report. Requirements of the country for loans this year are estimated almost in 450 mlrd euro. And if profitableness of the Italian papers jumps up still above money of investors becomes inadmissibly expensive for the country.

Decrease in ratings of France and Austria will almost inevitably lead to loss by the European stabilisation fund EFSF of the AAA - a rating. S &P declares the decision on it this week. EFSF has no own means, and involves money through release of bonds AAA - level which is provided with credit guarantees of the countries of a zone of euro. After decrease in ratings of France and Austria the volume of guarantees from the countries with the higher ratings decreases with 451 mlrd to 271 mlrd the euro which three quarters it is necessary to Germany. At the same time in business of rescue of Greece, Ireland and Portugal are involved already 200 mlrd euro. Angela Merkel has declared that S &P not “ torpedoes “ work stabfonda. At the same time she has called colleagues “ as soon as possible “ To start constant stabfond ESM. Initially this fund which unlike EFSF will have “ live “ money, should earn only in 2013, but in December term of its start has been transferred for July of this year.

Consequences of mass revision S &P a rating auknutsja and outside of Europe. “ China will undoubtedly reconsider the investments in an euro zone “ - Richard Drajver considers. China officially does not open structure of the world`s largest international reserves, however, by expert estimations, on the actives nominated in euro, 20-25 % from their total amount are necessary. On Friday it became known that in the fourth quarter of last year the volume Chinese ZVR for the first time since 1988 was reduced - with 3,27 trln to 3,18 trln dollars Are decrease can be connected mainly with easing in relation to dollar of other currencies which are included in structure of reserves, Whether economist RBS of Tsuj considers. For October-November, 2011 of euro has fallen in price to dollar on 3,2 %.