Crisis from crisis not is easier
Russia should be restored long after its second wave
to the Russian economy each time it is required to more time for restoration after crisis. To such conclusion economists " have come; the Capital Renaissance in the report constructed on given Rosstata. The second wave of the crisis, which inevitability already denies nobody, can stretch even more this process, experts consider.
As analysts " consider; the Capital Renaissance the Russian economy left on pre-crisis level that official figures of Rosstata (gross national product growth for 2011 - 4,3 %) confirm. According to the report, its pre-crisis peak has had on the second quarter 2008, and to grow economy became year later. However in total it was required to Russia twice to more time for economy restoration in comparison with an overcoming the crisis of 1998.
In 1998 we were restored after own crisis that was easier as other world was in good shape - the chief of analytical department IK " considers; Grandis the Capital Denis Barabanov. Recent crisis in this plan was more difficult: many countries did not leave it till now. but if there will be a second wave so serious consequences for Russia what were in 1998, will not be - the expert considers. As he said, the Russian economy on - former is fastened on oil, and demand for oil even in crisis does not decrease, and the prices remain high. therefore we will grow, but very low rates, approximately as now - marks g - n Drums.
the Different nature of an origin of crises 1998 both is marked 2008 also by the director of department of strategic analysis FBK Igor Nikolays. Certainly, similar comparison is rather interesting, but it is not so correct, concerning rates of restoration the reservation on conditions and the reasons of occurrence of both crises " is necessary; - the expert considers. At the same time he notices that the first wave of crisis of 2008 went under the scheme of fast falling and enough fast restoration. But the second wave of crisis will be opposite. development will go on such type: slow immersing, the uncertain period of a finding in crisis and slow restoration after it - the expert underlines. Therefore g - n Nikolaev is assured what to recover Russia in the future it is necessary much longer.
the Group economist the Three Dialogue Evgenie Gavrilenkov considers what to compare two epicritic restorations absolutely incorrectly. 1998 and everything that occurred to it, was proceeding economic recession, besides, during that moment there was no overheat of economy . As to the period of 2006-2008, that, according to the expert, scale loans, a rise in prices for oil, growth of internal demand are peculiar to it. Similar indicators - obvious signs of an overheat of economy. recession in 2009 has been caused by an overheat, superfluous consumption, recrediting and a wrong course policy which all has created it a fixed rouble exchange rate, persistence of the Central Bank to support this level longer, than it was necessary, and slow devaluation - underlines g - n Gavrilenkov. However, as he said, the Russian economy while grows that shows: in Russia of crisis still is not present.