Long resources of banks: visibility and a reality
Possibility effectively to operate ruptures between actives and passives on terms, interest rates, currencies - one of bases of activity of banks.
Possibility effectively to operate ruptures between actives and passives on terms, interest rates, currencies — one of bases of activity of banks. For this purpose vital not only predicted, but it is desirable for banks also steady resource base. In the absence of that the Russian financiers and persistently speak for a long time about necessity of escalating of long-term resources, referring to ostensibly their domination in resource base of foreign banks. However, statistically, a share of long-term passives of banks from the developed countries frequently even more low, than at their colleagues from Russia and the majority of other developing countries. The international comparison shows that more long-term resource base of banks is a consequence of complexities in the market. In process of situation stabilisation in the Russian and international markets the share of long-term resources of banks and an urgency of this problem will decrease.
According to the data on the end of 2011, a share of passives of the Russian banks with contract terms of repayment less than three months made approximately 35 %, and with terms more than one year — more than 40 %. It is necessary to recognise, however, that real promptness of passives of the Russian banks is frequently much shorter, than the official statistics shows. For comparison: the same indicators on an eurozone made 55 % and less than 35 % accordingly. For example, on the consolidated basis under the international standards a share of passives with contract terms of repayment less than three months reached 84 % for Deutsche Bank, 83 % — for BNP Paribas, 72 % — for Societe Generale Group, 62 % — for UniCredit Group, 61 % — For Intesa Sanpaolo Bank, in comparison with the average level of 45 % for large Russian banks on the end of 2010 (last accessible data). At investment banks, considering specificity of their activity, passives with contract terms of repayment less than three months occupy from 70 to 85 % from total amount.
Inherently if to speak uproshchenno, traditional bank business is based on transformation of shorter and, hence, presumably, cheaper resources in longer and more profitable investments. Similar business - the model provides to bank not only the traditional percentage income, but also in case of instability represents considerable risks. Thereby the majority of banks on developing nizkolikvidnyh the markets are compelled to support a high share of long-term passives. Banks from the developed countries, working in the conditions of lower interest rates and spredov and in more liquid markets with the best possibilities on refinancing, ohotnee are accumulated by short-term passives.
At deterioration of a market situation the requirement for long-term resources also increases in the developed countries, and their sources are limited. For this reason investors so had positively been apprehended the decision of the European central bank on granting of three-year credits to commercial banks. However such policy conducts to growth of dependence of commercial banks from the state refinancing. Already now public funds make almost 50 % of passives of banks in Greece, more than 15 % — to Ireland, almost 8 % — to Portugal, 5 % — in Italy, 4,5 % — to Spain and 1,5 % — in France, and it is quite possible that these levels can be exceeded the next 12 months.
So where this long foreign money about which so it is frequent and it is much told, if not in the western banks? Certainly, to the country the situation differs from the country, but in not state financial sector of many developed countries long-term resources make the basic share in passives of pension funds, the insurance companies and various investment funds which only somewhat place these resources in banks, and basically are the largest investors in the share and debt markets. On the pension and insurance companies it is necessary more than 70 % of investments at the largest stock exchanges, such as NYSE and LSE, but it is considerable less than 10 % in Russia. For example, actives of the pension and insurance companies of the USA made 18 and 33 % of gross national product of the country accordingly on the end of 2011 in comparison with 2,2 and 2,2 % in Russia.
growth of incomes and absolute volume of internal private accumulation by means of development of system of pension funds and the insurance companies should provide formation of so desirable long-term resource in the Russian market. But on it a lot of time and institutional and structural changes and, in particular, trust growth to a financial system as a whole is required. So, at higher norm of savings in Russia in comparison with the majority of the developed countries the population in the absolute sizes earns less, and consequently, postpones less, and the considerable share of savings does not get to financial institutions. The share of savings of the population in incomes in Russia made for first nine months 2011 more than 9 % (almost having doubled in comparison with 2008), and following the results of all 2011 4,6 % — in the USA, 11,3 % — in Germany, 7,7 % — in Austria, 7,3 % — in Japan, 3,9 % — in Italy. The age of our financial system is insignificant, and consequently, unlike the developed markets incomparably accumulation of financial actives less proceeds.
the vicious circle Turns out: without stable economy there is no long money, and without long money there is no stable economy. As well as in the developed countries in current conditions of instability, in Russia on given much more long transition period of formation the considerable role of the state in economy financing is inevitable that conditionally is a certain form of division of current emergency expenses with the future generations. However development of the market of internal not state resources can provide long-term qualitative development of the Russian economy.