Rus News Journal

The markets wait for the decision across Greece

the External background to start the auctions in the Russian market on Tuesday, on February, 7th, is neutral. The auctions in the USA on Monday were closed by decrease, as well as planned the Russian market on closing. On Monday futures for the American indexes bargain neutrally, at the auctions in Asia sellers prevail.
macroeconomic
the Share auctions in Europe on February, 6th 2012. Were closed by fall of leading indexes from - for fears round Greece where the situation has not moved off dead centre.
the Greek authorities should answer concerning the conditions offered a three the international creditors (the European Union, the International currency fund and the European central bank) within the limits of the second program of the emergency help to Athenes, till 14:00 Moscow time. However officials have declared that the ruling coalition should agree with creditors about carrying out of the further reforms in exchange for new credits to the following meeting of Eurogroup which, possibly, will take place current week. On a similar information background the European bank sector has finished the auctions basically in red to a zone.
the share auctions in the USA were closed on February, 6th by decrease: index Dow Jones has given on 17,1 points (- 0,13 %) - to 12845,13 points, index S &P - on 0,57 points (- 0,04 %) - to 1344,33 points, index NASDAQ - on 3,67 points (- 0,13 %) - to 2901,99 points.
at the share auctions in Asia on Tuesday sellers prevail. At 08:00 Moscow time index Nikkei 225 has given on 0,21 %, Hang Seng - on 0,18 %, All Ordinaries - on 0,3 %, Shanghai Composite - on 1,93 %. Growth shows only Straits Times, the index grows on 1,33 %.
the Commodity market
the Prices for the raw goods have grown and will grow further. Investors overestimate risk of recession - now there will be no that was in 2008., last report on the American labour market proves it. The situation reminds 2009 - j - restoration of the prices for actives more. Besides, we expect that this year the eurodollar will grow, thus traditional return correlation of a dollar exchange rate with the prices for raw materials will remain. When the commodity markets react to short-term bad news, we recommend to clients to use reduction of prices and to buy - strategist Danske Bank of Arne Lonmann Rasmussen has informed on air of BloombergTV.
On Tuesday at 08:00 Moscow time futures for gold were on a mark 1722,74 dollars/ ounce (- 0,12 %), silver - 33,61 dollars/ ounce (- 0,41 %), platinum - 1624,9 dollars/ ounce (- 0,3 %), a palladium - 704,5 dollars/ ounce (- 0,2 %).
As of 08:00 Moscow time on Tuesday the price of contract Brent is on a mark 115,74 dollars/ barr. (- 0,15 %), contract Light Sweet - on 96,79 dollars/ barr. (- 0,12 %).
Forex
Euro on Tuesday again under pressure. Its course by 09:00 Moscow time has made 1,31 US dollars. In the attention centre Greece comes back - round it the rhetoric about a default and an exit from a zone of the reference of euro is even more often audible.
the question of an exit of Greece from a zone of the reference of euro has passed from conditional scenarios in a plane of real preparatory measures. Such opinion has stated the eurocommissioner from Greece the day before in interview of mass-media. now it not simply scenarios. These are alternative plans which are openly discussed - Maria Damanaki has declared the commissioner of EU on sea affairs and fishery, answering questions of newspaper To Vima.
In reply to real threat of a default the anti-recessionary coalition government of Greece intends to reduce 15 thousand state employees in 2012. All it becomes to please to a three the international creditors.
Thus the Minister of Finance of Greece Evangelos Venizelos has hinted that party entering into the Greek coalition New democracy it do not agree with a number of reforms.
thus, the economic crisis in Greece turns again to the political. Inability of the power to solve a problem is caused by their weight. Dismissal of state employees - on the one hand, reduction of budgetary expenditure, with another - real reduction of gross national product. And in this light resignation of state employees at all does not solve a debt problem. On the contrary, people become the unemployed that again presses on the budget at the smaller sizes of economy. To solve a problem of Greece it is necessary, but time it is lost much. The Euro exchange rate it becomes fast again the turbulent.

New week the Russian stock market has begun the share markets without a certain tendency - the spirit of participants of the auctions was diverse. As a result the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index for one day has had time and to update a maximum 2012., and to be closed in small Minus . The powerful negative which has appeared in news lines became the reason of the last: the Eurocommission has informed that Greece was late with negotiations on new credits, and the IMF has warned that recession in Europe can slow down growth of economy of China twice. It will affect, naturally, not only in the Chinese market. Futures for the American index S &P 500 on such background have left in appreciable a minus but the Russian market has not directed steeply downwards.
locally very high prices for oil (the price of barrel of mark Brent reached to 115,4 dollars) became the Factors which have supported the quotations of domestic papers on Monday, And positive closing of the Friday auctions, and instantly to stop inflow of investment money it is almost impossible. As a result the Russian market has got off with very small losses, again having shown stability. And it suggests an idea that on Friday we saw not last wave of growth.
following the results of trading session on February, 6th the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index has gone down on 0,12 % - to 1562,87 points, and RTS has raised on 0,06 % and has reached a point 1626,65 points. The volume of the share auctions at a Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange stock exchange - RTS following the results of day has made 323,56 mlrd rbl.
the Forecast
After shock last week domestic indexes have started to be consolidated. While forces for continuation of rally at players are not present, though it is not necessary to forget that key levels of resistance were are taken and now turn to supports. If the external background cardinally does not worsen, the market will have sooner or later forces on growth continuation.
Results of trading session of Monday practically add nothing for that understanding as the situation in the intermediate term period will develop. Remained since Friday not completely satisfied investment demand has not given to the market is high-grade to react to the appeared negative, forces bulls and bears were made even. However the market by inertia remains bull - to sellers obviously do not allow to be developed even on multiweek maxima. In addition in February players wait for the next injection of liquidity from party ETSB, and on falling before elective rally of time already are not present. So to bears it is necessary to abstain from active and risky actions.
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