The rouble has set up a new record of fallingthe Russian rouble has begun week sharp falling in relation to the rests world to currencies. Later 10 minutes after the beginning of the auctions of the quotation of rouble for the first time since April 2009ã. Have fallen below 39 rbl. to bivaljutnoj to a basket. Dollar quotations have punched a mark 33 roubles, and the euro has risen above 46 roubles.
as a result the Bank of Russia had to raise official rates of dollar and euro strongly enough. So, the dollar exchange rate has for tomorrow grown on 1,02 roubles and has made 33,0597 rbl./ dollars the Official rate of the European currency has been established at level 46,0059 rbl./ euro that for 1,33 rbl. above the previous course.
now participants of the market are excited only with one question: that became the reason of so prompt falling of a rouble exchange rate. The majority of experts agree in opinion that the Russian currency continues to become cheaper against decrease in the world prices for oil which traditionally is a reference point for a rouble exchange rate. For last two weeks oil has fallen in price more than on 10 dollars, and now oil quotations keep around a two-month minimum.
in the end of last week the prices for oil have fallen below a mark 59 dollars/ barr., and as a result the rouble has shown record decrease, having fallen to a minimum of several months in relation to dollar and euro. Participants of the market notice that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation even was necessary to interfere with an event and to sell for maintenance of rouble of an order 2 mlrd dollars And further dynamics of the Russian currency will depend in many respects on oil quotations, experts add.
in turn analysts of Nomos - bank notice that in the market there are high devaluation expectations. “ at the prices for oil around 55 - 60 dollars current level of a basket looks a little overestimated, and is not excluded that, in case of stabilisation of oil quotations in the intermediate term period, we can see some strengthening of national currency. However, now in the global markets panic moods reign, therefore to wait for a rise in prices for oil it is not necessary " yet; - experts underline.
other traders speak about panic moods in the market also. As they said, the fundamental reasons for so sharp collapse of a rouble exchange rate still are not present. Developed to the middle of today`s trading day the rouble exchange rate to bivaljutnoj to a basket at level 38,95 roubles was observed on April, 20th of this year whereas oil cost 45 - 50 dollars for barrel against present 59 - 60 dollars
the Analyst of Bank of Moscow Egor Fedorov considers that pressure upon rouble will proceed until instability in foreign markets remains. “ at banks of enough rouble liquidity which while can be used for currency purchase “ - E.Fedorov underlines. He believes that current instability has short-term character. In process of stabilisation of foreign markets the rouble should restore the positions, and the Central Bank can continue a policy of decrease in interest rates for activization of credit activity.
in turn the Russian government assures, as before, that it is not necessary to wait for rouble devaluation. “ the Authorities of the Russian Federation do not see necessity for devaluation of the Russian currency for present macroeconomic conditions “ - the assistant to the president of the Russian Federation Arcady Dvorkovich has declared in the end of last week. Thus it nevertheless has made a reservation that in case of change of economic indicators devaluation is possible, but scale it will not be.
“ stability of rouble depends on stability of the Russian economy and a condition of the balance of payments. We consider, right now there is no necessity for devaluation of national currency, considering positive balance of trading balance and the positive account of current operations. If fundamental indicators change, acceptance of any measures is possible, but they will not be radical “ - the assistant to the Russian president has underlined.