The world bank has estimated prospects of Europe and the CISthe report of the World bank on prospects of developing countries Today is published. According to experts VB, sharp decrease in the general rates of increase in region of Europe and the Central Asia in 2001 is caused, mainly, by three major factors.
the first - recession of internal demand in Turkey, caused by decrease in control of budgetary accounts and lacks of work of financial sector in the conditions of sharp economic recession as consequences of financial crises of the end 2000 - the beginnings 2001ã. The second - returning of Russia to more moderate rates of increase after extraordinary rapid development (almost 8 % in 2000). The third - appreciable decrease in global demand.
one of the important assumptions, concerning immediate prospects of development of the countries of region, consists that reduction of global demand for power resources and “ tractability of members of the OPEC “ Can lead to decrease in a nominal and real price level on oil. According to the experts VB, for exporters of hydrocarbonic raw materials from the CIS countries such scenario means the further decrease in rates of increase of gross national product in 2002 to level of 3,2 % whereas in 2001 it has made 4,9 %.
Estimating a situation in the European Union countries, the World bank notices that in the given region restoration of economy and essential increase in demand is expected not earlier than 2003.
According to the forecast, within the next decade the general rates of increase of gross national product in Europe and the Central Asia will average from 3,5 to 4 %. Primary factors of increase in rates of increase - creation of more favorable economic climate and increase of macroeconomic stability that will lead to increase in investments and shares of savings in gross national product volume, is marked in the report.
In the countries Central and the Eastern Europe there are possibilities for steady growth in intermediate term prospect under condition of realisation of two base assumptions. The first of them - process of the introduction into the European union will be carried out according to the planned plans (even at time difficulties). The second assumption is based that Turkey will achieve successful restoration of macroeconomic stability, having cleared for that road to revival of economy within the next years, in certain degree at the expense of falling of a course of Turkish lyre.