A.Kudrin has scarified the scenario of development of the Russian Federation to 2020ã.the Innovative scenario of development of the Russian Federation to 2020ã., developed Ministry of economic development and trade (MAYOR), it is fraught with a disbalance of budgetary system, has declared vitse - the prime minister, Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin during board meeting of the Russian union of industrialists and businessmen (RSPP) in Moscow.
at discussion of budgetary strategy to 2023ã. He has noticed that, in its opinion, “ this variant threatens financially - economic stability, with it it is necessary to work still “.
Confirming to the words it has resulted the calculations of the Ministry of Finance made, proceeding from this scenario. They have shown that the parity of incomes and budget expenses will be gradually reduced. So, in 2010ã. Incomes will exceed expenses on 2,7 % of gross national product, in 2015ã. - on 1,9 - 04 % of gross national product. Already in 2020ã. Expenses will exceed incomes on 0,8 - 1,4 % of gross national product, and in 2025ã. The budgeted deficit will make 1,3 - 2,4 % of gross national product, A.Kudrin has told.
Making comments on the offer of Ministry of economic development and trade on decrease in the VAT with 18 to 12 % and replacement of dropping out incomes by oil and gas receipts, A.Kudrin has noticed that the given measure not only will create additional inflationary pressure, but also will not give essential effect for economic growth. The total effect from this measure, according to the minister, will make a zero or 0,1 - 0,2 % of growth of gross national product.
the head of the Ministry of Finance has underlined that in a present situation of gradual reduction of a share of oil and gas incomes in gross national product, and also deterioration of a demographic situation and necessity of struggle against a rise in prices for the first place in economic strategy it is necessary to put macroeconomic stability.
he has specified that for today the budgetary system of the Russian Federation pays off, proceeding from the price of cutting off for oil at level 70 dollars/ barr. According to A.Kudrin, the Ministry of Finance starts with understanding of inevitable reduction of budgetary expenses within the next 15 years even without decrease in taxes. Thus in the concept of long-term development of the Russian Federation, developed the MAYOR, is supposed decrease in incomes at preservation of expenses at present level. In the concept reduction of incomes from 39,8 % of gross national product in 2007ã is supposed. To 31,1 - 32 % of gross national product in 2025ã. Thus expenses should make in 2025ã. 33,3 - 33,5 % of gross national product (in 2007ã. - 33,7 % of gross national product).
Expressing disagreement with the offer the MAYOR about replacement of dropping out incomes of reduction of taxes by oil and gas receipts, A.Kudrin has told: “ It all the same what to start to extinguish a fire kerosene “.