Rus News Journal

Reduction of prices on oil - only an occasion to players on fall

RTS Index - one of the leading indicators displaying dynamics of stock market of Russia. At calculation of an index of RTS stock quotes of 50 various companies presented at a stock exchange of RTS are used. RTS index decreases already almost 4 months, oil of mark Brent - about two months. Whether
to the full descending dynamics of the Russian market by reduction of prices on oil, or " Is caused; bears have already played? We will consider a situation from the technical point of view.


RTS index has started to decrease in the middle of May 2008. And the growing prices for oil did not render essential support to quotations of the Russian companies. Therefore when oil began to become cheaper promptly, sales of domestic actions were quite logical. However recently market decrease occurs without any fundamental negative and resembles purposeful rendering of pressure upon the market as a whole.
a number of analysts explain movement by descending dynamics of the prices for oil, however it is necessary to notice that decrease in an index of RTS has overtaken for a long time already oil quotations, therefore it is a little incorrect to use them as the fundamental factor, making direct and strongest impact. More likely, hazardous players on fall use any information occasion in the purposes: to press through quotations more low.
meanwhile the target prices of the domestic oil companies paid off from the look-ahead prices for oil 80 dollars/ barr. In the long term several years, and now there are no doubts that demand for oil will grow. Even in case of reduction of prices on oil to 80 dollars/ barr. The Russian oil and gas sector remains investitsionno attractive and will keep essential potential of growth.
However the OPEC is not going to admit decrease in oil quotations below 100 dollars/ barr., as it will essentially lower profitability of business of cartel and economic profitability of working out of new deposits. Besides, at level 98 dollars/ barr. There is a significant support which, possibly, also will help to keep the prices a little above.
the oil companies have significant weight in RTS index, therefore it is possible to assert that the Russian market as a whole will be attractive and at oil in 80 dollars/ barr. And slightly more low. There is a question: whether it is necessary to sell the papers at minimum levels when oil quotations are rather highly and here - here can appear still above?