It is not necessary to be afraid of repetition of Great depressionHas passed almost year after crash American Lehman Brothers. Bankruptcy of this bank has provoked sharp aggravation of world financial crisis and has created fears concerning repetition of Great depression 30 - h of the XX-th century, transfers Reuters.
However these pessimistic forecasts could not come true. In many respects thanks to scale anti-recessionary programs of the authorities of the worst succession of events it was possible to avoid. But even despite it, current recession of world economy will become history as the deepest since the Second World War.
now the governments of almost all largest states should solve when to cancel anti-recessionary measures. Experts notice that this uneasiest decision as for the present there is a probability of aggravation of crisis and sharp growth of inflation. “ recession is close to end, but for the present there is a probability of the second wave of crisis “ - economist Deutsche Bank Thomas Mayer marks.
to the similar point of view also Ministers of Finance ", apparently, adhere; the big twenty “ which in London recognised one week ago that anti-recessionary measures while need to be continued. “ countries G20 should continue to take fiscal and monetary measures in the international coordination and to accept effectual measures for opposition to potential economic risks proceeding from concrete conditions for each country “ - it was marked in the communique following the results of a meeting.
certainly, now the world economy feels much better, than one year ago. Global index MSCI global has grown for the last half a year approximately on 56 %, and as a whole from the moment of bankruptcy Lehman Brothers he has managed to win back almost 2/ 3 falling of that time. The economist of Jelsky university Robert Schiller noticed in the end of August that “ process of restoration of trust became infectious “.
In turn Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, tracing official statistics more than in 70 countries, has published the information according to which volumes world promproizvodstva have grown in June on 2 %. Thus world trade volumes have grown up in June of this year on 2,5 %. “ world economy Restoration will not be fast, but all the same present crisis cannot be compared on depth to Great depression “ - the leading economist of the Organization of economic cooperation and development (OESR) considers Jorgen Elmeskov.
the Organization in the beginning of September has officially declared the recession termination in the developed states. By estimations of economists OESR, gross national product of the majority of the developed countries will grow already following the results of III quarter 2009ã. Thus in the organisation report it was underlined that growth of economy of the USA and an eurozone can appear following the results of current quarter above forecasts.
the Most interesting that on volumes of reduction of world gross national product current crisis even nearby did not stand with Great depression. By approximate calculations of experts, reduction of economy of the USA from - for current recessions will make approximately 3,9 %, the eurozone economy will lose an order of 5 %. For comparison: only in 1932ã. Gross national product of the USA was reduced to 13,4 %, and all with 1929ã. Reduction of the American economy has made 31 %.
However, even despite all signs of gradual restoration of world economy, the authorities of the majority of the countries should become thoughtful and take lessons from current crisis. By estimations of the majority of experts, probability next “ a credit bubble “ the history is very great also can soon repeat.
we will remind that on September, 15th last year the American bank Lehman Brothers declared intention to submit the application on bankruptcy in the American court according to section 11 of the Code of the USA about bankruptcy. A bit later the gone bankrupt bank has been bought by the largest retail bank of America - Bank of America.
News about crash Lehman Brothers became the reason of a collapse of quotations of the companies of financial sector practically on all world trading platforms. Exchange indexes have fallen in Europe, Russia and in the USA. In turn Barack Obama, being then only the candidate for presidents, has noticed that financial crisis in America has appeared the worst since Great depression.