Rus News Journal

O.Voronin: Romania is on the verge of a default


For September, 22nd in Romania mass protest actions against the policy of reduction of expenses spent by the government are planned. Such decision was accepted one of these days National board of Confederation of free trade unions. It is supposed that some tens thousand persons will take part in the action.
in May on streets of Bucharest and other cities have passed many thousands demonstrations of state employees and pensioners. They have begun after Side government Emila has started realisation of the anti-recessionary program recommended to IMF. It is directed on rescue of the Romanian economy which as recognised E.Bok, has appeared in the most cruel for last 60 years crisis.
the head of board Moldavian Financial commercial bank the son of the former president of Moldova Oleg Voronin considers that Romania actually is in preddefoltnom a condition. As he said, after disorder of the Warsaw block the country has walked twice into the same water, as the majority of the Post-Soviet countries. After disorder of a communistic system in the country it was observed plunder the states two ways: underestimation of real cost of state property at its privatisation and, on the contrary, revaluation of cost of the state orders paid from the state budget.
by estimations of independent analysts, annually Romania loses nearby 10 - 12 mlrd the budgetary funds redirected by different schemes into private accounts. For comparison: in 2010 Eurostat estimates a budgeted deficit of Romania in 9,3 billion
According to O.Voronina, with the introduction into the European Union Romania has lost the majority of levers of influence on home market. as the result, the state has no powers to introduce though any strategy if only it does not correspond to interests, so to say, private shareholders Sectors of the Romanian economy which to a thicket operate the actives from - for a boundary. As a result development of economy of Romania almost completely depends on private corporate strategy, instead of from state - the businessman marks.
in its opinion, for today Romania has appeared on a default threshold in many respects from - that since 2004, from giving of the come European private capital, internal demand has reached unknown level. Mid-annual growth of internal demand at the expense of too accessible crediting exceeded growth of real incomes of the population. Moreover, in conditions when internal manufacturers could not cover internal demand, the huge free niche was captivated by the western goods. And a bit later, after moderate growth of internal manufacture, local manufacturers have appeared in conditions when they could not support a rhythm of competitiveness with the western goods: Those have appeared better and cheaper, besides some were accompanied by financial programs for buyers. As a result that at first for the internal manufacturer seemed inevitable success, eventually has turned back full fiasco.
O.Voronin considers that the European integration has given Romania the European goods and European free money for their payment to be engaged in manufacture in Romania the majority of the European corporations does not gather. Sharp falling of consumption in some sectors to 70 % speaks not only world crisis. It, first of all, a consequence of pre-crisis structural errors in economy of this country. Romania has stepped over a threshold of a serious problem, namely rupture of communications between internal consumption and internal manufacture. Even without world financial crisis Romania would appear in preddefoltnoj situations, marks O.Voronin.
With approach of crisis outflow of the foreign extra capital from financial sector of Romania is quite logical. As a result in the country does not remain the capital for support of the same consumption level. It is less consumption - less incomes in the state budget. And after all growth of salaries, that is and consumption, over the last 5 years in Romania was based on it. The country has appeared in a situation when could not pay the salary and support the same level of budgetary expenses. A result - 8 % of budgetary deficiency, growth of the VAT and decrease on 25 % of incomes almost to all state employees.
according to O.Voronina, the contract on crediting from IMF on a covering of budgetary deficiency, together with the measures accepted by the Romanian government which lead only to reduction of internal consumption so, and receipts in the budget, will inevitably finish Romania to the next loan to pay percent on the first loans. And Romania already now is the largest borrowers of IMF, and also the leader on level of falling of foreign investments in Europe - 55 % on comparison with Central European in 24 % and srednemirovym in 38 %. Unfortunately, Romania is attractive to large corporations only as the market instead of as the platform for manufacture, concludes O.Voronin.