Rus News Journal

The euro future: falling below 40 roubles - only the beginning

the Russian rouble has continued today the strengthening on pleasure to simple Russians, ponabravshim during pre-crisis times credits in currency foreign. The central bank almost buys up every day dollars and euro of hundreds millions, but make can nothing: the prices for oil go upwards, and bivaljutnaja the basket falls, despite interventions.
today the Russian currency growing by leaps and bounds has pressed down euro, which has given more low psychologically important mark in 40 roubles. The euro official rate has for tomorrow decreased for 32 copeck and has made 39,9586 rbl./ euro. Last time so cheaply uniform European currency was on sale in the end of December 2008. The American currency thus has fallen for a long time already below 30 rbl./ dollars Inhabitants guess, in what to store the not numerous savings, and analysts in a unison repeat that the euro is where to fall still.
the Greek pressure
the Reasons for strengthening of rouble a little. If to look separately at pair rouble - euro here on the foreground there is an external conjuncture. For last months debt problems of Greece and to a lesser degree other members of a zone of euro (like Portugal and Spain) have considerably weakened positions of uniform European currency. From - for impetuous consumption and frauds with Athena statistics have appeared on the verge of a financial collapse - the cumulative debt of this small country now exceeds 300 mlrd euro, the budgeted deficit four times surpasses limiting indicators, and on a court yard crisis, and to repay debts there is nothing.
Problems of Greece would remain its internal difficulties if in due time it has not entered an euro zone. In similar difficult situations of the government usually or declare a default, or devalvirujut national currency (or both that and another, as Russia in 1998.) . But in Greece currency is euro, and now it with its debts became a headache for the others 15 members of an eurozone. Thus the fast permission of this problem it is not expected yet. All it has forced the market to doubt stability of uniform European currency that has led to its essential reduction in price: if in November 2009. For euro gave 1,5 dollars now the course has already fallen to 1,37 dollars/ euro.
group economist UK finam management Alexander Osin notices that a rouble exchange rate many years went behind euro pair/ dollar, and there are no reasons that it did not proceed now . According to A.Osina, to Russia now there is a recombination of currency preferences - investors look that occurs in foreign markets, and get rid of euro in favour of rouble and dollar. He also has added that, under its forecasts, the euro have potential of the further decrease, and here dollar, on the contrary, can grow on 10 - 15 %.
National property by 80 dollars/ barr.
Other reason is the serious rise in prices for oil which still remains the main export Russian product. The prices for oil confidently keep last days or around a mark in 80 dollars/ barr., or above that naturally pushes a rouble exchange rate upward. Contrary to all conversations on modernisation, Russia while first of all power power so, value of national currency is defined substantially by a world oil conjuncture.
the most important thing here is, of course, the prices for oil which have punched 80 - dollar border, having shown the maximum for long enough period. It is most seriously supports rouble - the director of management of currency risks IK " speaks; BrokerKreditServis Pavel Andreev. Among other factors the expert has allocated changes in euro steam/ dollar, tax payments, and also speculative inflow of currency.
P.Andreev also says that the rouble will continue further the growth. As he said, the most probable variant of succession of events (about 50 %) - continuation of a current tendency under condition of preservation of a rise in prices for oil. in that case in May it is possible to wait for a dollar exchange rate approximately at level 28,6 rbl., and euro - 38,5 rbl. Other variants are possible, but they are more difficult counted and connected with any unexpected changes in a world macroeconomic situation - has concluded P.Andreev.
the Ministry of Finance washes hands, the MAYOR sounds alarm
In the government concerning a current situation soglasja is not present. The Rouble exchange rate to foreign currencies is now objective, has declared the day before vitse - the prime minister and Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin. The rouble should be objective, connected with objective and fundamental indicators of the Russian trade, first of all the balance of payments. Now it is objective - he has told.
the head of the Ministry of Finance also named ways on decrease in risks of strengthening of rouble. that the rouble did not tend to strengthening at the price for oil 75 dollars/ barr., it is necessary not to spend all incomes of oil, and we spend today. It is the main reason, - the minister has underlined, having added that he is disturbed more by high inflation.
in the Ministry of economic development (MAYOR) other opinion concerning current rates of exchange. Rates of strengthening of a rouble exchange rate should not exceed rates of increase of economy, and from this point of view the rouble should not become stronger, has declared one of these days deputy minister Andrey Klepach. In its opinion, there should be more interventions (Central Bank), it will not render influence on inflation .
the question Price
Each time when the rouble strongly becomes stronger in relation to euro and dollar, the Central Bank leaves with interventions on the market. In February 2010. Net - purchase of foreign currency by Bank of Russia has made 6,7 mlrd dollars and 302 million euro, in January - 608 million dollars and 241 million euro. The lion`s share of these purchases of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has made in attempts to keep promptly growing rouble.
Dear rouble - pleasure for the inhabitant, especial preferring the import goods. To go abroad too begins more cheaply, to give currency credits - easier. In the theory, on strong rouble it will be possible to buy more that as a whole is the consumer blessing.
at the same time the growing rouble exchange rate is a certain burden for economy: the export gain in rouble expression falls, whereas the cost price of the goods made in the country grows. In a present situation hardly it is necessary to hope on any effective importozameshchenie and boom of the Russian manufacture.
anyhow, but the rouble continues to add in the price day by day. Hardly probable it will reach pre-crisis peaks (dollar on 24 and euro on 35 roubles the most courageous analysts do not predict even), but even with such strengthening considerably will reduce a gain of the oil, gas and mining companies which are doing business in currency.