The western experts: expensive oil will not help the Russian currencywidespread Enough point of view that the Russian rouble exchange rate marches in step with the prices for oil, recently is exposed to serious doubts. Even more often it is possible to hear opinion that the rouble will continue to become cheaper, even despite proceeding rise in prices for oil, transfers Reuters.
the Reasons for this purpose, according to experts, a little, the basic - strong weakness of the Russian economy, which following the results of 2009ã. It should be reduced approximately to 10 %. Finally the Russian authorities should expand once again borders bivaljutnogo a corridor, established in the beginning of year.
after the beginning of world financial crisis in the last summer the Russian authorities have decided to spend controllable devaluation of rouble. As a result of border bivaljutnogo a corridor have been expanded to 26 - 41 rbl., and the Bank of Russia has spent for maintenance of rouble of an order 200 mlrd dollars, or third of all gold and exchange stocks of the country.
However, even despite the taken measures, rouble remains to one of the weakest developing currencies. During the period from March till August of this year the Russian currency, contrary to a rise in prices for oil, has weakened in relation to dollar approximately on 3 %. Thus currencies of other raw states, having used oil rise in price, have directed upwards. The Brazilian real has flied up for the same period of time for 26 %, and Mexican peso has risen in price for 6 %.
the Further reduction in price of rouble threatens obvalit all corporate sector of the country already suffering from huge debts, rising in price day by day. Thus Russia has faced the biggest recession for last decade: its economy can be reduced following the results of a year to 10 %, and capital outflow to reach marks 66 mlrd dollars “ Certainly, level of the oil prices is very important for the Russian economy, but it is impossible to forget about its weakness “ - representative HSBC Phillip Pul marks.
the Most interesting that about half of all bonds of the Russian companies are nominated in foreign currency, in particular in dollars and euro. According to experts, payment term on the majority of bonds (and it nearby 8 mlrd dollars) Comes in II quarter 2010ã. “ If the rouble continues to become cheaper, the Russian companies will face a huge problem: their promissory notes will grow in times. It is one of the reasons which induces the authorities of the Russian Federation to support national currency “ - strategist Societe Generale Gel Blanshar considers.
At present the rouble bargains near to a mark 37,7 rbl. to bivaljutnoj to a basket. However participants of the market stake that the maximum in a year it will fall to a mark 41,75-41,95 rbl. Echoes colleagues and share manager Werner Gey of Van Pittius by which words in the nearest some months probably small strengthening of rouble, but then the Russian rouble exchange rate will start to decrease.
However, the Russian authorities continue to insist on absence of necessity of devaluation of the Russian currency. For example, the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Alexey Kudrin at the moment opposes similar operations. As he said, while the price for oil will be high, to speak about such succession of events it is not necessary. “ the Rouble exchange rate should reflect fundamental indicators of development of the country “ - the minister has added. However the majority of experts with it do not agree. “ the Condition of the Russian economy leaves much to be desired. I think, the Russian authorities will not wait, while oil will fall in price to 30 dollars/ barr. The question on devaluation will rise much earlier “ - the leading strategist on emerging markets TD Securities of Bit Zigenthaler considers.
Echoes it and a number of other experts. As they said, the weak rouble will do good to the Russian economy, which else it is necessary to diversify. Do not please participants of the market and statdannye: volumes promproizvodstva in the Russian Federation were reduced following the results of I half 2009ã. On 16 %. Last month falling was slightly slowed down, and that thanks to export growth, instead of internal demand, analysts add.
However, it is necessary to notice that economists adhere to so pessimistic point of view not all. For example, analysts Banc of America Securities - Merrill Lynch, despite conversations on rouble devaluation, have left without change the forecast on the Russian currency, expecting its slow strengthening in the foreseeable future.
in their opinion, in III quarter of current year the average rouble exchange rate to dollar will be stable and will make 30,64 rbl. the Similar situation will be and in IV quarter following the results of which the course is expected at level 30,61 rbl. Since 2010ã. The rouble will start to become stronger faster: in I quarter 2010ã. - to 29,44 rbl./ dollars, in II quarter - to 29,26 rbl., in III quarter - 27,10 rbl., and by the end 2010ã. The rouble will become stronger to 26,64 rbl. for one unit of the American currency.