Experts: Russia becomes the importer of grainRussia becomes the importer of grain, experts and representatives of the power consider, analyzing the information on possible import of 5 million tons of grain in the Russian Federation against a drought and reaction of world stock exchanges. By words a press - the secretary of the Russian grain union Anton Shaparina, Russia “ anyway will not turn in net - the importer and will keep the export orientation “.
“ We will return to the world market if not in it, in a following season. We have not stopped, and have suspended membership in this club “ - has declared A.Shaparin.
the official representative of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation Oleg Aksenov has confirmed that Russia will not import grain. As he said, at the Ministry of Agriculture “ there are no such plans and there are no such desires “. O.Aksenov has underlined that on all available indicators even if will work the worst scenario, during the current year grains in Russia will be enough for needs of consumption.
the Representative of the Ministry of Agriculture has noticed that Russia will make in 2010ã. At least 60 million tons of grain at available stocks in 21 - 24 million tons, and internal consumption will demand 77 - 78 million tons. “ no necessity for import is present. It is everything, in my opinion, vbros not clear source “ - O.Aksenov has underlined. Also he has noticed that nobody applied to the authorities of Kazakhstan about granting of grain of Russia.
of the Ministry of Agriculture are assured that the information on import of 5 million tons is formulated by the brokers interested in splashes of the prices. O.Aksenov is assured that this data - “ at its finest a course for exchange speculators “. Thus the official has not excluded that some from zernotrejderov will want to get a part of the Kazakhstan grain to provide the contracts with foreign partners in the conditions of operating embargo on export deliveries from the Russian Federation.
in state corporation “ the Incorporated grain company “ (OZK) which operates with the state intervention fund (9,5 million tons), have noticed that buying plans to OZK were not lead up. Thus OZK refuses from what or forecasts till October, 1st 2010ã., when in Russia harvesting will be summed up. In the government of the Russian Federation also have stated extreme surprise of the appeared information on grain import, having noticed that such question never was discussed lately with the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation. Thus the source in the cabinet has reminded that annually Russia delivers from Kazakhstan and Ukraine to 2 million tons of those kinds grain which in the country are in relative deficiency.
in the Russian grain union also have explained that wheat from Kazakhstan, and also from Ukraine Russia usually bought corn and barley in volume 1 - 1,5 million tons annually. In 2010ã. The rye and grechiha which were delivered in some cases and in former years will be delivered. Representative RZS considers that figure in 5 million tons - objectively overestimated. In its opinion, at this conjuncture the figure in 2 - 2,5 million tons import grain much more really looks.
despite all arguments of the Russian authorities and experts, the western stock exchanges have very sensitively reacted to hearings about possible import of grain. The rise in prices under autumn futures at the Chicago and Parisian stock exchanges has made 3 - 4 % on August, 19th and has proceeded almost in the same dynamics on August, 20th. Last delivery to Egypt the American grain has passed at the price of 277 dollars for ton.
in RZS consider that the behaviour of a stock exchange depends from “ scale games “ with the information, for example, from Grain council of the USA which considers that Russia becomes large net - the importer of grain. “ we see razgonku stock exchanges. On a world rise in prices the Russian interdiction has already played: it was observed 30 - dollar growth at the expense of the Russian embargo. But now artificial stimulation of stock quotes " proceeds; - has underlined A.Shaparin. Thus in RZS have noticed that perfectly understand, to whom this dispersal of the prices is favourable: first of all to Frenchmen, Americans who in this season when in the market there is no the most powerful competitor in the name of Russia, feel freely.
meanwhile official estimations of the same Grain council of the USA could not provoke a panic in the market. Council has published the data according to which during the current year (2010 - 2011) the volume of import of grain in the Russian Federation will make 1,5 million tons. As the basic supplier Kazakhstan is called. More likely, the market is warmed up by hearings and not confirmed hypotheses about the further scenario of events in the Russian market of grain.
however a member of Public chamber of the Russian Federation Nadezhda Shkolkina considers that “ the smoke without fire does not happen “ therefore hearings about import at a rate of 5 million tons nebespochvenny. N. SHkolkina has assumed that Russia, probably, delivery grechihi which promptly rises in price is required. In a number of regions of Russia the price of 1 kg of a buckwheat reaches already 80 roubles.
representative OP the Russian Federation has noticed that now guards that fact that agricultural manufacturers force to hand over grain at the prices which are unprofitable to them. “ administrative resources, instead of market in the form of prolongation of credits, maintenance of peasants with seeds " Will be involved; - has underlined N.Shkolkina. Thus a member of Public chamber has advised to ordinary consumers “ it is rational to use products “.
Gamble by Russia of import could be provoked to a theme of opening not quite careful promulgation by the Ministry of Agriculture of analytical materials at meeting with the president of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev in Taganrog on August, 12th. Within the limits of preparation for meeting the Ministry of Agriculture has made “ primerochnyj “ look-ahead balance on grain. According to these materials, Russia can import 2,5 - 3 million tons. In the same document it is told about volume of potential export of grain after end of term of embargo since January, 1st 2011ã. It is supposed that Russia can take out from 2 million to 4,5 million tons of grain in comparison with last year`s export 22,4 tons.
we will remind that the grain yield in Russia was lost from - for droughts on the area over 10 million hectares that makes more than 30 % from all area under crops. Thereupon from August, 15th till December, 31st 2010ã. In the Russian Federation operates with embargo on grain export on purpose to provide internal demand for this resource which deficiency has developed in the conditions of a drought.