Rus News Journal

The share market: bears have begun the attack with Asia

the External background to start the auctions in the Russian market on Monday, on August, 20th, is moderately positive. The auctions on Friday in the USA have ended with growth though the domestic market put decrease. On Monday futures for the American indexes bargain moderately negatively that provokes sales at the auctions in Asia, and the prices for oil have gone downwards.
It seems that at world stock exchanges start to gain in strength bear moods, and the Russian market, despite high values of the American indexes and a positive external background, can begin game downwards on an advancing.
macroeconomic
the Share auctions in Europe on August, 17th 2012. Have come to the end mainly with increase of leading indexes. As experts mark, positive moods of investors were affected by reports of some the American companies, whose results for I half-year 2012. Have surpassed expectations of analysts. Besides, the a role have played comments of heads of EU, including head of ETSB Mario of the Drag, about readiness to make all necessary for eurozone preservation.
the share auctions in the USA on Friday, on August, 17th, have ended with growth: index Dow Jones has grown on 25,09 points (+0,19 %) having reached 13275,2 points, index S &P - on 2,65 points (+0,19 %) - to 1418,16 points, NASDAQ - on 14,2 points (+0,46 %) - to 3076,59 points.
on the Asian share platforms sellers on August, 20th prevailed. By 08:00 Moscow time index Nikkei 225 has grown on 0,47 %, at the same time All Ordinaries has given on 0,08 %, HANG SENG - on 0,74 %, Shanghai Composit - on 0,87 %.
the Goods
Activity in the raw materials market in August, most likely, will be enough languid: Central Banks of an eurozone and the USA have shown inactivity in which result the attention of investors was switched again to politicians with hope that those will support weakening economy, analysts Societe Generale mark.
to the Central Banks which are standing aside, it was possible to convince temporarily the markets that they are ready to operate if it will be demanded by worsening economic conditions. However if the politicians defining a financial course, do not justify expectations, to the markets can be demanded more than simply words. Politicians and the markets in III quarter on - former will strongly depend on the macroeconomic data. Against easing of economic growth and inflationary pressure uncertainty can lead to leaving of some investors from the raw materials market, contrary to steady improvement of a situation in sphere of bank crediting.
at 08:00 Moscow time on Monday futures for gold were on a mark 1620,81 dollars/ ounce (+0,08 %), silver - 28,13 dollars/ ounce (+0,46 %), platinum - 1479,2 dollars/ ounce (+0,41 %), a palladium - 605,6 dollars/ ounce (+0,08 %).
By 08:00 Moscow time on Monday the contract on oil of mark Brent was on a mark 114,17 dollars/ barr. (+0,41 %), the contract on Light Sweet bargained at level 96,6 dollars/ barr. (+0,3 %).
Forex
the euro has begun week with moderate lifting though arriving from a zone of euro of news should frighten players. But, seemingly, while to frighten there is nobody: the markets are in seasonal hibernation. Volatilnost has sharply gone down, and news have no value.
the additional help of Greece will not be, the Minister of Finance of Germany Wolfgang Shojble has declared, transfers Reuters. to Throw out money in a bottomless butt - it is irresponsible. We cannot start one more program of the help - V.Shojble has told during open day of the government. The head of financial department has underlined that the euro is stable currency which has led to inflation decrease in Germany in comparison with the period of circulation of mark.
It is expected that the prime minister - the minister of Greece Antonis Samaras will initiate prolongations for two years of term of radical economic reforms at a meeting with German chancellor Angela Merkel and the president of France Francois Ollandom in Berlin on August, 23rd. Transformations have been co-ordinated earlier with the European union, the International currency fund and the European central bank.
According to present conditions of granting of the help of Greece, it should reduce a budgeted deficit to 2,1 % of gross national product in 2014. From 9,3 % in 2011. Assignment from EU and IMF depends on success of carrying out in Greece structural reforms. However if Greece does not keep within the schedule of reforms, its financing can be stopped that will lead to a default and possible refusal of the Balkan country of euro. We will notice that the total amount of the means of EU allocated to Athenes and IMF reaches 240 mlrd euro.
Greece will not leave an eurozone. Such statement was made by the head of Eurogroup Jean - Claude Junker in interview to the Austrian mass-media, transfers Associated Press. it should not occur. To speak about an exit of Greece from an eurozone it is possible, only if Greece violates all conditions of agreements with the international creditors and will not execute the promised. In case of full refusal of budgetary consolidation and structural reforms we should to start discuss possible refusal of Athenes of euro. But as in Greece are going to double efforts to achieve objects in view, there are no reasons to consider the scenario with refusal of Greece of euro - has told ZH - K.Junker.
he has noticed that refusal of Greece of euro can be organised technically, but not politically. we are not engaged in working out of the similar plan - the head of Eurogroup has underlined.
the interesting situation has developed in an euro zone during week-end. German block obviously incited against Greece is ready to expel the country from an eurozone, at the same time euroofficials are ready to do the utmost for preservation of the status of Greece as member of a zone of euro. Meanwhile the market was so tired of the Greek problems and incapacity of bureaucrats that has decided not to pay attention to discussions round the country and without excitements to wait their results.
the share markets
Friday has given to the Russian stock market the weighty reasons for renewal of the purchases, most important of which there was an exit of American index S &P 500 on a three-monthly maximum above 1415 points that opens road for storm of a long-term maximum on a mark of 1420 points.
the macroeconomic statistics of the USA and Europe also has appeared favorable, has especially pleased appreciable growth of an index of consumer trust in the USA, supported by absence of inflation of consumer prices and situation improvement on a labour market.
However it is simple to guess that the Russian players have decided to undertake nothing. The Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index has spent all the day long in a narrow range 1450 - 1460 points, and towards the end of day and has at all fallen out of it. Such spirit does not allow to count on fast change of market moods, and it is better to players to spend the rest of summer not in front of exchange monitors. Participants of the auctions forthcoming week wait for growth volatilnosti, but conditions quite have keeping bokovik up to September.
following the results of trading session on August, 17th the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index has gone down on 0,52 % - to 1444,27 points, RTS index - on 1,03 % and has reached a point 1416,33 points. The volume of the auctions at the Moscow stock exchange following the results of day has made 334,11 mlrd rbl.
the Forecast
the Domestic market continues to be consolidated about a mark of 1450 points on a Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index. In the market it is a little ideas, the main reason - a season of calm which will last two more workers of week. Only with an early autumn the market will receive new drivers for growth or falling, and volatilnost will raise.
the Russian players have spent last week for nothing - the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index has not changed and on 0,5 %. Such deal does not become an occasion to inflow of the investment capital which loves the weighty fundamental reasons for purchases or sales, and also sharp movements.
before restoration of market activity (with a high probability in it will be engaged bears having started to press on quotations) it is necessary to continue to remain out of the market as S &P 500 storms dangerous height of 1420 points on which stability the new intermediate term trend can depend.