Rus News Journal

Weather forecasters from economy: forecasts the MAYOR come true all less often

Incorrect forecasts of the Ministry of economic development (MAYOR) which a deputy head of Audit Chamber (joint venture) Valery Goregljad named “ it is inadmissible doubtful “ led last year to change of the law on the country budget twice. Besides, according to V.Goregljada, separate important articles in budget course of execution - 2009 have not been executed at all or executed only partially.
“ actually management of economy and budgetary system was carried out in a manual mode “ - has drawn a conclusion on overall performance the MAYOR zamglavy Audit Chamber today at session of board of the joint venture, devoted to results of check of execution of the budget last year.
balance infringement
On a twist of fate, arrows of criticism to department E. Nabiullina have departed next day after the MAYOR has once again brought updatings in the official forecast socially - economic development of the Russian Federation on 2010 - 2013γγ. However, the document the wide public yet did not see. About forecast change it became known from the Russian mass-media where the data of Ministry of economic development and trade has flowed away before the official publication.
officials from the MAYOR, making comments on the filtered information, try to keep optimistical tone. However already it is now clear that in the Russian economy there were problems. Main from them - to keep balance in the conditions of the reduced price for oil. Without receiving more than solid feed from oil export at the former prices, the Russian budget, imposed starting with 75 dollars/ barrel, risks again to become too scarce.
and without that the shaky balance of incomes and expenses is broken by a drought of this summer. Though in the comments representatives of Ministry of economic development and trade try not to mention an indicator concerning agricultural manufacture, the fact remains: falling in 2010γ. Will make 8,7 % instead of expected lifting of 2,7 %. Now, to leave a current situation, the government should take measures.
what exactly will be made, while authentically it is not known. According to experts of Institute “ the development Center “ GU - VSHE, the government theoretically has three ways to cope with a situation, than one another is worse: to cut down social expenses, or to increase an external and internal debt, or devalvirovat rouble.
from three harms - smaller
Reduction “ sotsialki “ it is undesirable in pre-election year. The increase in debt burden threatens “ the Greek default “. Rouble devaluation completely will break developed plans for development all before in which strengthening of national currency was put, very much the other way.
As a measure capable partly to soften position, again began to mention revision of a tax policy concerning monopolists, oil industry workers, metallurgists and simply prosperous citizens. And the last looks the most realistic, after all deputies already discussed possibility of introduction of the tax to luxury in the beginning of this year. Alcohol can rise in price: though representatives of Rosalkogolregulirovanija have denied hearings that floor price of vodka will raise till January, 1st 2011γ., when the excise will change, however have not excluded probability of growth of the price from - for grain rises in price.
rouble devaluation also not seems already so improbable. Under not confirmed data, in the document forecast fall on rouble strengthening, though also insignificant is provided. Earlier the vice-president of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Alexey Uljukaev declared that a cycle of fast regenerative strengthening of rouble after devaluation 2008 - 2009γγ. It is finished, there has come the period volatilnosti and unpredictability.
About what changes wait economy, it becomes already clear next week. As representatives the MAYOR prepared by them a variant of the specified forecast have explained is the worker, it is dispatched on the coordination in the ministries and the Central Bank. And on Monday, on August, 30th, the document will be presented on court of the budgetary commission of the government. Behind it it is logical to expect becoming already habitual offer to the State Duma to make amendments to the law on the budget. Probably, not casually the MAYOR corrects the forecast and intends to discuss it in the government on the eve of returning of deputies from summer vacations.
Elena Derjabin,