From heavens on the earth
official estimations of inflation all is closer to a reality
According to new forecast MERT, this year the prices will grow on 9-10 % instead of 8-9,5 %. Such data has transferred agencies referring to session materials “ a round table “ in the Federation Council “ Improvement of quality of macroeconomic forecasting as a basis of stability of the three-year budget “. With forecasts at the ministries as it was found out, on - former not all is fine. At the moment of a struggle aggravation for budget money the conservative position of financial department pours out in even more pessimistic view on possibility to keep a rise in prices.
the federal budget was imposed proceeding from the annual forecast of inflation for 2008 in 6-7 %, later it has been raised to 7-8,5 %. In March MERT again has changed the estimation for 8-9,5 %. Now, when anybody from experts does not doubt at all that inflation will be not less than 10 %, officials have decided to reconsider the forecast of a rise in prices again. This year the prices will grow on 10 %. At the same time officials have corrected also the forecast for next years: in 2009 - not on 7 %, and on 7,5 %, in 2010 - m - not on 6 %, and on 7 %, in 2011 - m - on 6,8 % instead of 5,8 %.
In the Ministry of Finance on an event make comments is more disturbing. It is obvious that forecasts of officials “ crack “ and do they with it can of nothing. The concept of development of the country till 2020 now prepares and struggle for budget money amplifies. MERT for which the main task is maintenance of growth of gross national product, insists on its serious underfinancing and says that without injection of budget money to translate economy on innovative rails it will not be possible. To the Minister of Finance all is more difficult to constrain such appetites which satisfaction will urge on a rise in prices.
“ Inflation was two-place last year and most likely will be two-place and in it. Are not assured that it will be unequivocal and next year “ - the director of department of a financial policy of the Ministry of Finance Alexey Savatjugin at session in the Federation Council has declared. Supporting words of the chief, the deputy director of department of a financial policy of the Ministry of Finance Oksana Sergienko has informed that following the results of April annual inflation in Russia will already exceed 14 % against 7 % in 2007. “ inflation is an important macroeconomic indicator that is why it is necessary to pass in the nearest future to it targetirovaniju “ - insisted g - n Savatjugin. Increase of rates of increase of economy, replenishment of bank liquidity - these purposes run counter to a problem on inflation decrease.
the first auction on placing of temporarily available assets of the federal budget on deposits of commercial banks yesterday has been spent (in detail see on with. 9). Experts are convinced that the decision to spend similar auctions will bring the essential contribution in raskruchivanie inflations. “ this year it will disperse “ imported “ inflation about what the government speaks extremely willingly, - makes comments group economist Merrill Lynch on Russia and the CIS Julia Tsepljaeva. -
About other, more important reasons it is told reluctantly “. Among them the soft budgetary policy and growth of the State expenditure, and also the money of the Ministry of Finance placed on deposits of private banks.
under the forecast g - zhi Tsepljaevoj, inflation following the results of a year will be 10 % only in the event that the Central Bank will dare at strong strengthening of rouble. Otherwise the prices will grow on 14,5 %. “ There are measures which can be considered as very effective, but their practical realisation is improbable for political reasons “ - she concludes. In auditorsko - consulting company FBK believe that 14 % are bottom border of the forecast. “ The top lath we are afraid to predict: it is not known, what volume of means of state corporations and the budget eventually will appear in home market, - the director of department of strategic analysis FBK Igor Nikolays speaks. - there is a risk to receive 16-18 % “.