JP Morgan the temperature " disturbs; 36,6 “
the Bank has lowered twice a look-ahead stock value of the company
Bank JP Morgan has reconsidered the models of an estimation of three Russian farmkompany - “ 36,6 “ “ Verofarm “ and “ Farmstandart “ - also has lowered forecasts at cost of their actions on 15-54 % for a year forward. According to the Russian analysts, similar revaluations will follow and for the companies of other sectors.
analysts JP Morgan predict that a fair stock value “ Farmastandarta “ which on the end of 2008 is estimated in 36,4 dollars, will decrease to the end of 2009 on 15 % and the Fair estimation of actions " will make 31 dollars; Verofarma “ decreases on 22 %, about 74 dollars in the end of 2008 to 58 dollars in the end of 2009. The most negative forecasts concern actions of a chemist`s network “ 36,6 “: their predicted cost is lowered more than twice - about 50 dollars On the end of 2008 to 23 dollars on the end of 2009.
“ in connection with growth of the award for risk of the share market such parametre of an estimation as the discounting rate, and fair cost of papers of the companies has decreased has been raised, - the analyst of Bank of Moscow of Sabine explains Muhamedzhanova. - If to speak about change of forecasts on “ Verofarmu “ and “ Farmstandartu “ it is faster technical change in models. Potentials of the companies remain big “. Analysts JP Morgan agree with it: in the review it is said that “ Verofarm “ and “ Farmstandart “ have growth potential in 41 and 49 % accordingly.
however concerning a chemist`s network “ 36,6 “ the reason for fall of forecasts JP Morgan became not only the general market condition, but weak results of the company for the first half of the year 2008. Total profit of retail business “ 36,6 “ for this period has decreased on 1,9 items of the item, to 25,6 %. “ In this connection our former forecast on total profit for 2008 in 29,2 % is unattainable, and we have lowered it to 27 % “ - it is told in the review. Indicator EBITDA in retail business of the company in the first half of the year has made a minus of 21 million dollars from - for growth of expenses. Head “ 36,6 “ Dzheri Kalmis during telephone conference has doubted that following the results of a year this indicator leaves on positive level. “ before we predicted that following the results of a year EBITDA will be 19 million dollars, now we consider that a minus of 10 million dollars “ - analysts JP Morgan mark.
the Bank has changed the forecast and on the consolidated financial indicators “ 36,6 “ for 2008: a gain - 1,116 mlrd dollars (earlier - 1,179 mlrd dollars), EBITDA - 50 million dollars (79 million dollars), dead loss - 11 million dollars (the net profit at a rate of 38 million dollars was expected) . JP Morgan expects that in 2008 the company will close 60 drugstores, and in 2009-2011 will open on 100 new points annually. Proceeding from these forecasts, by the end of 2011 a network “ 36,6 “ will total 1464 drugstores.
an analyst “ Brokerkreditservisa “ Tatyana Bobrovsky agrees that decrease in forecasts under actions “ 36,6 “ speaks not only deterioration of a market situation, but also increase in risk of the emitter. Under its forecasts, EBITDA the companies following the results of 2008 can make 60 million dollars, and dead loss - 10 million dollars
However as marks Sabine Muhamedzhanova, revision of forecasts for the Russian companies is spent also by other investment companies, in particular Bank of Moscow. Tatyana Bobrovsky adds that similar revaluations will concern also the companies of other sectors.