Rus News Journal

The CIS left in world leaders

On gross national product growth

Today in Moscow the group economist of the European bank of reconstruction and development (European Reconstruction and Development Bank) Eric Berglof will present the report on a condition of the countries of transitive economy for 2006. According to the European Reconstruction and Development Bank, this year on economic growth in the world are in the lead country of Eastern Europe and the former USSR. On this key indicator of the CIS country have bypassed the European Union and Severo - the American zone of free trade (NAFTA) which includes the USA, Canada and Mexico. Record rates of increase became possible thanks to the increased internal consumption.

According to the European Reconstruction and Development Bank, in 2006 of the CIS country became region with the highest in the world rates of economic development. And it even in spite of the fact that obstacles for economic growth in the form of strengthening of inflation and decrease in volumes of foreign investments still remain. The European Reconstruction and Development Bank foretells that the volume of direct foreign investments in region will be reduced from averages of 5,9 % (from gross national product) last year to 5,5 % this year. Growth of gross national product of the states of Commonwealth (it « the ineffective mechanism demanding updating » as even more often name the CIS leaders of the countries - participants) will be reached in 2006 on the average almost by 7 % annual (see the table more in detail). Thus at the expense of successes in power sector Azerbaijan became the absolute leader on gross national product growth, having shown increase at 25 % and having overtaken even roughly developing China.

« We believe that following the results of current year region growth (the CIS and Mongolia. — daily) will reach 6,9 % (now this indicator makes 6,2 %). The prices for raw materials, in particular on oil and gas, play a huge role. But the countries which are not so rich with resources, too are quite successful, it is Armenia, Georgia and Ukraine » — The group economist of the European Reconstruction and Development Bank Eric Berglof has noted in conversation with daily. In its opinion, the economy of last three of the countries, not dependent directly from sale of power resources, grows at the expense of a rise in prices for the raw goods (metals, agricultural production and other exchange goods). Substantially growth also is provided with growing level of internal consumption. « Besides, an important role the big stream of remittances in the region countries, especially on caucasus and in the states Jugo - the Eastern Europe » has played; — has declared g - n Berglof daily.

« Really, last years growth in Russia and the CIS countries was exclusive, and it not seems to me that in the nearest year or two it will change. However, there are some fears in the long-term period » — professor Chatham House of Fil Henson has told daily. The expert has noticed that gradual improvement of indicators of Russia (with 6,5 to 6,6 % for last year) occurs not only from - for the high prices for energy carriers, but thanking « to competent macroeconomic management in the Russian Federation ».

According to expert Deutsche Bank Research of Berndta Kletta, hardly growth of gross national product of the CIS countries will considerably be reflected in economy of the developed countries of Western Europe, which indicators now essentially more low, on the average an order 1,5 — 2 % of the annual. « nevertheless the Western Europe is afraid of a competition from actively developing Eastern Europe. On the other hand, the western countries are afraid of growth of economy of China as it fills up EU with the cheap goods more likely. It is their basic headache » — the professor of the London school of economy Richard Dzhekmen has noted daily.