Rus News Journal

Optimism strategy

Alexey Kudrin has opened parametres of the three-year budget

Yesterday on the expanded board of the Ministry of Finance Alexey Kudrin for the first time has presented key parametres of the project of the three-year budget (for 2008-2010) . Budgetary expenses on three years, according to officials, are increased to a limit and in 2010 proficiency will be almost zero. In long-term prospect equation of the budget will be provided with its new design which will appear in 2008. The most brave - oil and gas - incomes will be considered on the separate account and already therefrom to be distributed on a transfer in the budget, reserve fund and Fund of the future generations. Predictably, today at session of the government the document will be approved.

summing up last year, minister Kudrin has noticed that the federal budget has been executed with record-breaking high proficiency 2 trln rbl., or 7,5 % of gross national product. remember this figure he has addressed to colleagues. Further proficiency will decrease, and in 2010 the budget as a matter of fact becomes besprofitsitnym . After all planned excess of incomes over expenses in 0,1 % of gross national product comparably with a statistical error.

The Minister and acting after it vitse - prime minister Alexander Zhukov and head FSFR Oleg Vjugin recognised that expenses the next two years razduty to a limit . Therefore not increase in state expenses, and increase of their efficiency will be a strategic problem the next years, Zhukov has underlined. However, while it only a wish. According to Vjugin, the decision on growth of expenses is accepted without a due estimation of their efficiency . To the Ministry of Finance and MERT he has suggested to carry out the concrete analysis of separate budgetary expenditure. For example, to compare, in 1 km of road to the private investor and state how many manages.

at formation of the budget the Ministry of Finance recognised that peak of the prices for oil is already passed. In long-term prospect (in the prices of 2006) Kudrin`s department predicts the price for oil in a range 4050 dollars for barrel that exceeds a consensus - the forecast of analysts. we are on a limit, the minister has noted. And now nobody can accuse us that we underestimate the prices . Taking into account expected reduction of prices on oil, and also reduction of rates of increase of oil recovery and gas (in the nearest 2030 the gain will make no more than 2 % a year, that is less than planned rates of increase of economy) and decrease in rates of increase of oil and gas export the special sharpness is got by an economy diversification. this problem becomes the major for execution of budgetary obligations Kudrin has noted.

for maintenance of long-term equation of the budget the most brave incomes it decided to bring into the separate account oil and gas incomes. On it receipts from NDPI on oil and gas, from the export duty on oil, gas and oil products will be enlisted. The offer of the Ministry of Finance to carry to them profit and the dividends received from the oil and gas companies, other departments have not supported. Kudrin has agreed: It not so essential sum (200 mlrd rbl.) To speak about criticality of their reference to oil and gas incomes .

Means from the oil and gas account will be distributed on an oil and gas transfer (for financing of operational expenditure of the budget), in reserve fund and Fund of the future generations (FBP). The oil and gas transfer for 2008 is defined at a rate of 6,1 % of gross national product, on 2009 - j 5,3 %, on 2010 - j 4,5 %. In 2011 it will make 3,7 % of gross national product. According to the minister, it will be constant volume of a transfer the next years.

the volume of reserve fund will make 10 % of gross national product. it is the sum necessary for quiet planning of the future development of economy considers vitse - prime minister Alexander Zhukov. Other means (about 25 % of gross national product) will go in FBP.

Open there is a question, when and as it will be used. Oleg Vjugin considers that the answer depends on that, how much effectively now it would be possible to use its means. Profitableness from placing of money of reserve fund (in the most liquid and reliable securities) is planned at a rate of 3,54 %, from FBP (in more profitable papers, corporate bonds, and in due course, probably, in a real estate PIF) 6,57 %.

Representing a new design of the budget, the minister was quite optimistical. Despite decrease in an oil and gas transfer, he believes that the next years the budget remains sufficient. Besides by 2009 at officials will appear nearby 165 mlrd rbl. in the form of the passing rest of not used means of Investment fund. This money will be spent in 2009 and 2010. The accepted budgetary strategy, according to Kudrin, allows to say that 2010 - j, even 2015 - j and 2020 - j will not cause anxiety .

Indicators of the federal budget in 2008 - 2010

>

7361,9

Proficiency

2008

2009

2010

mlrd rbl.

gross national product %

mlrd rbl.

gross national product % >

mlrd rbl.

gross national product %

Incomes

6673,2

19,1

7421,2

18,8

8035,2

18,1

Expenses

6500

18,6

7998,7

18

Percentage

188,5

0,5

213,1

0,5

247,7

0,6

not Percentage >

18,1

6964,8

17,6

7351,1

16,5

it is conditional - confirmed

-

-

184,0

0,5

399,9

0,9

173,2

0,5

59,3

0,2

36,5

0,1

the Source: the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation