Russia have stopped loving
under report Merrill Lynch, its actions are overestimatedYesterday investment bank Merrill Lynch has extended research under the name “ Mixed, but not vzbalamuchennyj “ (Shaken but not stirred) in which has shown that operating global funds the Russian actives strongly overestimated consider.
in the review of stock market extended yesterday “ Mixed, but not vzbalamuchennyj “ Merrill Lynch has resulted results of poll operating global funds concerning a current situation in the market. Poll has shown that managing directors consider overestimated Brazil (67 % interrogated), South Korea (50 %), Russia (33 %), Turkey (17 %), Thailand (11 %), Indonesia and China (on 6 %). Underestimated they consider India, Chile, Poland, Southern Africa, Israel, Taiwan, Mexico and Malaysia.
Proceeding from a current conjuncture in the market of energy carriers and non-uniformity of economic growth of developing countries, the opinion of the managing directors interrogated Merrill Lynch, is represented fair. “ till November inclusive actions of the companies of all countries named overestimated, actively grew, unlike underestimated which actives have not shown almost any growth, - group economist IK " has told daily; the Three Dialogue “ Evgenie Gavrilenkov. - Recognizing that emerging markets should grow in regular intervals front lines should be braked, and lagging behind - to overtake “.
Besides, level of the current prices could render significant influence on opinion of managing directors, group economist HSBC Alexander Morozov marks. “ If to start with current level of a turn of the Russian companies there can be an impression that today`s level of a parity of profitableness to capitalisation is too high and if to add the factor of reduction of prices on oil it and at all will be superoverestimated “ - he considers.
at last, the contribution to a negative estimation of the Russian market could add and political risks. “ political elections set the certain seal to prospects of development of the market and its stability “ - analyst Deutsche UFG Alexey Zabotkin marks. If all these factors appear valid, and an estimation of managing directors fair RTS index can roll down in the near future to level of 1240 points.
however, players present in the Russian market continue to trust in it. “ if to be guided by gross national product growth, the Russian market should grow on 15 % in 2007 “ - Alexander Morozov marks. With it Evgenie Gavrilenkov agrees also. “ All branches, except for oil sector, are considerably underestimated “ - Evgenie Gavrilenkov adds.
Nevertheless the opinion operating global funds can play a pivotal role in destiny of the Russian market: having stopped loving Russia, they will start to deduce the means from its actives that can lead to market falling. The share of money of non-residents in the Russian market makes, by Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange estimations, 40 %.