The dollar loses force
it favourably USA
In the world markets easing of the American currency proceeds. The economy of the USA yet does not show recover signs. The quantity of demands for reception of unemployment benefits last week September has grown on 16 thousand, and has made 317 thousand Many analysts regard it as a sign of deterioration of a situation in the American economy. As a result dollar devaluation in relation to the basic world currencies proceeds. In the beginning of the today`s auctions on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange the American currency has fallen in price for 3 copecks - to level 24,9832 roubles for dollar.
however, not all consider that the reason of falling of dollar - problems in economy of the USA. “ a specification on economy of the USA, without considering employment while good, but it is favourable America that the dollar fell on growing economy “ - analyst VTB - 24 Alexey Mikheyev has told in conversation with daily. As he said, 30 % of the American economy are state orders for which account the government of the USA stimulates economic growth. Therefore, when in economy there are crisis signs, FRS lifts the rate that the government could occupy money and finance economic growth. “ one year ago the American economy started to leave in a minus - FRS has raised the rate “ - the expert reminds. Then that the dollar also starts to grow. “ since 2001 Americans follow the same policy: have occupied - debts have depreciated, have typed new debts - devalvirovali dollar “ - he speaks. As all debts of the USA are nominated in dollars, its devaluation depreciates them. The unique problem - capital outflow, but growing economy can endure it. “ while the American economy is ready to sustain the outflow of the capital caused by devaluation of dollar, problems exist only in the real estate market “ - Alexey Mikheyev considers.
According to the expert, FRS will continue decrease in rates, and the dollar will fall till the end of the year. “ autumn will hold on without capital inflow, and in the beginning of next year FRS will raise the rate and dollar will start to grow “ - Alexey Mikheyev predicts. Thus, it is possible to expect dollar decrease the next months, especially considering the statements made yesterday the head of the European central bank by Jean - Claude Trishe. He has declared that in an eurozone growth of inflationary risks is observed. It means that in November ETSB can lift discount rates. If simultaneously with it FRS rates will lower, the dollar exchange rate will accelerate the falling concerning the basic world currencies, including rouble.
from the general background Ukraine which goes own way to the relation to the American currency is beaten out only. Last week the dollar exchange rate has sharply grown in relation to grivna - to level of 5,065 grivnas for dollar. However the Natsbank of Ukraine managed to return a situation in a stable channel. Daily exchange - 5,05 grivnas for dollar. The similar hryvnia exchange rate keeps since 2005. Last week traders have explained jump by deficiency of currency in the market, caused by buying up of dollar from party NAK “ Naftogaz Ukraine “. The company should buy gas, and dollars are for this purpose necessary. However, traders are assured that the situation with deficiency of currency in Ukraine will worsen. Especially, when the Ukrainian companies will start to liquidate debts for gas before “ Gazprom “.
the Main reason of deficiency of the American currency in Ukraine - negative trading balance of the country. “ import to Ukraine exceeds export from it “ - the director of the Kiev Institute of global strategy Vadim Karasev has informed daily. At the same time, as he said, the basic political players in Ukraine are connected with exporters whom the low hryvnia exchange rate is favourable. Especially it concerns Party of Regions. Last time the grivna in relation to dollar grew in 2005 during the period premerstva Timoshenko. However after coming to power of the government of Victor Yanukovych, the Natsbank of Ukraine has headed for a policy of weak grivna. “ it has helped to reduce deficiency of trading balance, - Vadim Karasev speaks. - but has resulted to inflation acceleration “. In its opinion, following the results of a year inflation in Ukraine will make 12 - 13 %. “ Or the improved balance of trading balance, or inflation “ - the Ukrainian expert speaks. That from this it will be chosen, depends on the one who becomes the new prime minister. If Yulia Timoshenko - a hryvnia exchange rate starts to grow, and inflation to decrease, if Victor Yanukovych - all remains on - former.