Inflation not to stop
a rise in prices was beyond the forecast
By the calculations of Rosstata published in the end of last week, the prices in September have grown on 0,8 % against 0,1 % in September of last year. Even seasonal reduction in price of fruit-and-vegetable production has not constrained inflation jump. More other products have risen in price sunflower-seed oil and cheese - for 13,5 %. Following the results of a year inflation obviously will not get to 8 % set by the government, and officials are, seemingly, ready to reconcile to it. The mite in raskruchivanie inflations, is considered by experts, has brought growth of incomes of the population.
in September inflation acceleration was felt by many countries. Along with the grain oil has risen in price. Deficiency of grain in the world market has reached record level. “ grain rise in price was predicted, therefore basically zernoproizvodjashchih regions crops olive in favour of grain " have been reduced; - general director WJ Alexey Kolomin explains. In Russia the oil rise in price is provoked by decrease in a crop of sunflower. In a number of subjects of the price for it have grown on 30 %. According to Rosstata, the most part of foodstuff has risen in price. So, the prices for milk have grown for a month on 9,4 %, on cottage cheese - on 7,5 %.
Among neprodovolstvennyh - building materials, for example cement have most of all risen in price for 9,5 %. “ We did not expect such sharp rise in prices, - Tatyana Orlova has told economist ING Bank. Is a global shock, and we do not think that the next months this factor completely will disappear “. G - zha Orlova has raised the former forecast of inflation from 8,5 % following the results of a year to 9,4 %.
to Keep the further rise in prices for articles of food it is possible administrative methods, experts consider. “ for decrease in the general inflation of the Central Bank, possibly, will go on additional strengthening of rouble “ - Tatyana Orlova considers. Economist IK “ the Three Dialogue “ Anton Struchenevsky believes that the mite in raskruchivanie inflations was brought by growth of incomes of the population, connected with a budgetary policy. “ in these conditions the government forecast - 8 % - look absurdly “ - the expert speaks. Its estimation of inflation in 2007 - 9-9,5 %.
Apparently, in the government with arrival of the new prime minister Victor Zubkov, first of all ordered to raise pension, have reconciled to a rise in prices. As has informed daily the high-ranking source in the cabinet, inflation following the results of a year will grow to 9 %. “ But it not critical figure “ - marks a source.
it is possible to carry out more rigid financial to the policy, to sterilise bolshy volume of money, but here there is also other danger. Liquidity of bank system that will lead to decrease in rates of economic growth can decrease. “ it is necessary to choose, - tells a source. - It is possible to toughen the financial policy and to receive 5 % of growth of gross national product, and inflation to keep in frameworks of 8 %, and it is possible to reconcile to inflation in 9 %, but gross national product growth thus will make 7,2 % “.
In a government priority, hence, now maintenance of growth of economy, instead of struggle against inflation. “ at us high enough rates financial reserves that guarantees macroeconomic stability for long time " collect; - justifies a strategy choice the governmental source.