Gas loses consumers
From - for falling of demand for the electric power
In the end of the past and the beginning of this year demand for the electric power in Russia has essentially decreased in comparison with the similar period of last years, it is marked in report UBS. In this connection it is possible to expect proportional reduction of demand by gas. Under forecasts of experts, extraction “ Gazprom “ in 2009 will fall to 2,8 % in comparison with 2008, to 535 mlrd cubic m.
Recession of demand for the electric power has made 3,8 % in November, 4,5 % in December and 6,1 % in first half of January in comparison with the similar periods of last years, it is marked in report UBS. As on electric power industry 40 % of the gas consumed in Russia are necessary, the obtained data speaks about reduction of demand for gas, experts consider. Under forecasts of analysts, extraction “ Gazprom “ in 2009 will fall to 2,8 % in comparison with 2008, to 535 mlrd cubic The m, and extraction NOVATEKa will increase by 8 %, to 33 mlrd cubic m. Thus experts notice that their estimations can appear still overestimated as in December of last year gas production was reduced in comparison with the similar period of 2007 to 6,5 %. Position is aggravated with that from - for expected low sales of blue fuel in this winter and, accordingly, small selection of gas from storehouses at “ Gazprom “ there will be no capacities for the storage, allowing to exclude influence of seasonal factors on gas production.
can negatively affect gas monopoly and a situation with tariffs for gas for the Russian consumers. Though the government has approved quarterly increase of tariffs in the sum on 16,3 % if in Russia sharp decrease in industrial output next quarter the prices for gas can remain former again is noted. It is necessary to notice that in November, 2008 falling has made 8,7 % in comparison with the similar period of previous year. And if in Russia sharp decrease in industrial output again is noted, experts UBS, " consider; Gazprom “ can be again used to assist for restoration of the Russian economy, as in 1998.
however the Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin in interview to German TV channel ARD has let know that the government does not intend to refuse rise in prices for gas which is a basis of the Russian power balance. The vice-president of the Russian gas society Oleg Zhilin is assured that gas cost will rise how it planned.
It is improbable that tariffs for gas in 2009 will be reconsidered, the head of department of researches of gas branch of Institute of problems of natural monopolies Alexey Belogorev agrees. The declared investment program “ Gazprom “ in 920 mlrd the rbl. simply cannot be financed in case of decrease in rates of increase of the internal prices for gas. Against the extremely negative look-ahead dynamics of the export prices at the government simply does not remain other variants for financing of capital investments in gas branch.
under forecasts of analyst IK “ Veles the Capital “ Dmitry Ljutjagina, extraction “ Gazprom “ in 2009 It will decrease approximately to 540 mlrd cubic m. is connected with manufacture decrease, and cardinal. Thus to refuse rise in prices for gas for the Russian consumers it is impossible. They will help the Russian monopoly to compensate partly decrease in the export prices for gas and to return a part of losses from “ gas war “ with Ukraine and short-receptions from - for it an export gain which, by calculations g - on Ljutjagina, has made from 1,9 mlrd to 2,1 mlrd dollars