Demand does not shine
Losses of the power companies from crisis can increase
Under the forecast of noncommercial partnership (NP) “ market Council “ power consumption in Russia this year will fall to 4-8 % in comparison with the past in which it has grown on 2 %. It is twice worse than expectations of the experts stated in the end of the year. Most strongly the wholesale generating companies will suffer from demand falling (OGK) whereas territorial (TGK) are insured from unloadings thanks to development of a considerable quantity of heat. As a result of OGK are compelled to reflect on decrease in costs for all fronts and to predict considerable decrease in incomes in comparison with expected earlier.
In the end of the last year experts gave reserved enough forecasts of change of rates of power consumption in 2009. The scenario 4 - percentage falling was considered as the most pessimistic, and optimists even predicted possible growth on 1,5-2 %. At the same time in the most power-intensive branches reduction in demand for the electric power has made 30-40 %. The basic regions of decrease in power consumption - Moscow, St.-Petersburg, the Chelyabinsk, Sverdlovsk and Orenburg areas. Figure of the forecast of power consumption for 2009, according to the vice-president of board NP “ market Council “ Vladimir Shkatova, for them it will be lowered concerning actual consumption of last year on 5-7 %.
According to Vladimir Shkatova, at the moment power consumption was stabilised on a mark hardly below level of 2007. Against recession of power consumption and remaining volumes of development of the price for the electric power in the wholesale market were stabilised. Since October in the European part of Russia they did not exceed 600 rbl./ MVt ch., in Siberia there were at level 450 rbl./ MVt ch. In Ural Mountains which have endured the sharpest recession of consumption, the price 500 rbl./ MVt ch were established at level.
At the same time business - plans of the power companies in a profitable part on the nearest two - should be corrected three years seriously. In turn it can result and in updating of their investment programs. We will remind, now power are connected by obligations within the limits of contracts on granting of the capacity, meaning 25 - percentage penalties for default of investment obligations regarding terms or volume of input of new capacities.
most of all from current consumption recession can suffer OGK in which structure of development, unlike TGK, heat share is minimum. “ for certain unloading basically - percent on 70 - will lay down on a state district power station “ - Vladimir Shkatov speaks. “ Stations OGK first of all react to reduction in demand as they more maneuverable and work in a semipeak mode “ - the analyst of Alpha bank Alexander Kornilov explains. As he said, to this problem are added “ Not growing prices for the electric power “ thus that anybody is not going to reduce the price for gas. According to the expert to compensate dropping out gain OGK there is nothing.
“ power consumption Falling will lead to reduction of development of the electric power, deterioration of economy and growth of specific expenses of the company “ - general director OGK - 2 Stanislav Nevejnitsyn has declared daily. “ as the Measure on minimisation of losses in the free market the conclusion of long-term free contracts on electric power delivery " can serve; - have noted in OGK - 1.
“ the Power consumption in Russia in 2009 will decrease on 3 % or remains at previous year level “ - the head of department of researches of electric power industry of Institute of problems of natural monopolies Natalia Porohova considers. As she said, the adequate forecast of gross national product for the next year as there is a steady direct correlation dependence between a gain (falling) of a power consumption and gross national product is necessary for the power consumption forecast. But within last two months the forecast under gross national product of Russia this year was reconsidered repeatedly, Natalia Porohova has reminded.