Kudrin has not blown off bubbles
the head of the Ministry of Finance predicts long restoration of economy
a pessimism Wave again has covered the Ministry of Finance. Its head Alexey Kudrin has declared yesterday at opening of the first Russian economic congress that “ the economic crisis is still far from end, despite some optimistical indicators of economy “. Still one month ago it seemed that Kudrin has for a long time joined the ranks of the optimists declaring that Russia left recession.
messages on a fast exit of the country from recession, and from crisis in general, were strewed recently from executive power in abundance. Alexey Kudrin in October at a forum in St.-Petersburg positively predicted economy development: the probability of the second stage of crisis is very low. In the middle of November zamglavy Ministry of economic development and trade Andrey Klepach has informed that gross national product of Russia next year can rise more than on 3 %. Some analysts also echoed the authorities, declaring that “ some positive tendencies were outlined in economy “.
Therefore and from opening of the first Russian economic congress very few people expected sad statements. But they have sounded. “ it seems to me that the crisis bottom still will be stretched “ - Kudrin has declared yesterday. As he said, now a number of fundamental economic indicators remains weak. Alexey Kudrin has underlined that after some improvement of economy “ not all bubbles were blew off “. The minister has noticed that still exist “ bad “ debts, unemployment grows, and foreign trade position remains heavy. “ Russia has reduced a trade turnover to 30-50 % with the partners, the situation up to the end was not resolved “ - Alexey Kudrin has underlined.
According to the head of the Ministry of Finance, the Russian economy did not manage to avoid consequences neither the overestimated rouble exchange rate, nor chosen governmental tactics of its gradual easing. “ we have admitted the deepest strengthening of currency from the countries “ the big twenty “ is just first sign of our raw dependence “ - Kudrin ascertained. He also admitted that not abundance of oil, and expenditure of money became a problem for economy in corpulent years. “ a coin box “ in the form of Stabfonda also has provoked excessive strengthening of rouble. “ it promoted decrease in our competitiveness. Measures which we have accepted, were vague. It was necessary to follow more rigidly “ - the Minister of Finance has informed.
the major macroeconomic indicators serve as acknowledgement minfinovskogo pessimism. According to Minzdravsotsrazvitija, for last week unemployment has increased by 0,4 %. According to given Rosstata, for January-October goods turnover was reduced to 5,7 % by the similar period of last year. For ten months of this year in the country has arrived on 27,8 % less than foreign investments in comparison with the same period of 2008. Industrial production continues to slide downwards. Rosstat ascertains: in October recession was accelerated and has made 11,2 % in relation to October, 2008. And in September promproizvodstvo has fallen to 9,5 %.
“ For November indicators are already clear, truth, they are published not for general public, and for office using of the economic block of the government. There already know that November was month for which anything good has not occurred “ - the director of department of strategic analysis FBK Igor Nikolays considers. “ while it is necessary to ascertain that economy restoration goes slowly enough as importozameshchenie does not work “ - group economist Dojche of Bank Yaroslav Lisovolik marks.
G - n Nikolaev specifies that does not rescue and “ effect of low base “. “ In October if turn to growth was outlined, this effect as the economy has started to enter into a sharp phase of crisis with second half of October, 2008 " should affect; - Igor Nikolays considers. As he said, thanks to it some indicators could look pretty well, but even it has not occurred and about any growth now cannot be and speeches.
position of financial sector, the basic source of restoration of the industry and a consumer demand, also confuses analysts. Yesterday`s bezzalogovyj auction of Bank of Russia on granting of six-monthly credits without maintenance for the sum to 5 mlrd the rbl. is recognised by not taken place of - for absence of demands. As the first vice-president of the Central Bank Gennady Melikjan has informed daily, in November volumes of crediting of the enterprises - non-residents have essentially grown, that is the Russian banks do not trust domestic borrowers (see with more in detail. 6).
G - n Lisovolik notices that rouble strengthening should lower a growth problem “ bad “ debts, at the same time it asks a question, the exit of economy from crisis will be how much fast. All hope on - former for petrodollars. “ time during which the high prices for oil will start to influence total amounts of demand and economy restoration is necessary. Still at least one as a whole is required or even more quarters that the financial position of real sector has become stronger that growth of crediting and other sectors of economy " has gone; - Yaroslav Lisovolik summarises.