ETSB wants to limit influence of rating agencies on the marketPassed on Thursday, on July, 7th, session ETSB has not presented to the market of surprises, but some key theses of performance of the head of bank Jean - Claude Trishe have appeared rather interesting. We will remind, the regulator would raise the base interest rate on 25. The item - to 1,5 %, having finished it to a maximum level since March 2009ã. In a course a press - conferences ZH - K.Trishe has noticed that the eurozone economy is not in the worst condition, than other world economy. Thus he has underlined that influence of decisions and comments of rating agencies on the market strongly enough and this problem has no simple decision. The regulator also has suspended existing requirements to pledge according to which accepted as proof of a paper should have ratings of investment level, for Portugal. This decision became answer ETSB to actions of rating agencies, and a similar step has already been earlier made concerning Greece.
According to analysts of YOKES “ the North the Capital “ last actions ETSB testifies to its intention to keep on market high liquidity, however is far not at any cost, anyway, not at the expense of direct stimulation and the mass repayment of problem actives from the market. Actually ZH - K.Trishe in the speech has completely neutralised recent comments of rating agencies as about the French banks (from - for excessive a considerable quantity of the Greek bonds on their balances), and about sovereign ratings of Portugal and Ireland, having declared that in immediate prospects he does not see special risks, at least until these countries strictly adhere to the obligations taken on on reduction of budgetary deficiencies.
head ETSB has especially noticed that defaults, let even selective, should not be. The regulator will try as it is possible to support longer “ sinking “ EU economy afloat. Economists HSBC have counted up that if rating agencies declare a partial default on debts of Greece, Portugal and Ireland holders of bonds should write off at a loss 50 % of their cost, and for the European central banks, including ETSB, it will turn back losses nearby 23 mlrd euro. So in many respects the destiny of euro is in hands of rating agencies, and risks of decrease in this currency continue to raise.
according to founder Trademonster of Peter Nadzhariana, will not be long the European peripheral countries are paid in time in full as they are very heavy for this economy. The expert considers that the big money has already considered unreality of a current rate of euro. He pays attention of investors on ETF with symbol EUO which moves against an euro exchange rate with factor 2, that is on 1 % of decrease in euro the fund grows on 2 %. The day volume of trade in actions of this fund exceeds usual volume in 10 times. According to the Item Nadzhariana, it is an obvious sign on that large investors expect strong falling of euro.
the editor and publisher The Gartman Letter of Dennis Gartman also “ on - bear “ it is adjusted in the relation of pair euro/ dollar. It reminds that all one week ago, when the Greek parliament has approved (we will note, very small majority) the program of rigid economy, the market some days grew on this news successively. But at the moment all investors in the market as fire are afraid of the European financial sector which in case of essential troubles with peripheral debts is necessary still for a long time “ to collect on pieces “. D.Gartman considers that all countries PIIGS should pass through bankruptcy, and not in the far future, in 10 or 20 years, and within the next one and a half years. Thus, the expert considers expedient opening of positions on euro decrease in intermediate term prospect, fastening of pair below 1,4 dollars
becomes a signal to the beginning of strong falling of uniform currency Comparing results of current week on euro steam/ dollar and forecasts of experts, it is necessary to note some the key moments. The euro while do not have fundamental factors of growth (especially if the decision under rate ETSB was valid completely it is won back by the market earlier). Thus, it is possible to assume that there is a high probability of decrease in uniform currency to level 1,41 dollars, and “ to push “ euros below level 1,4 dollars can problems of Spain, Italy or Ireland. But before “ shortit “/ dollar, it is necessary to remember euro pair about a reporting season in the USA which starts on Monday. At a current condition of world economy the essential positive from the American companies can lead to growth not dollar (that would be quite logical), and euro as good corporate results will be the certificate of restoration of global economy and demand growth.