Day Forex: protection from QE3 - raw currenciesOn Monday, on August, 8th, in market Forex are observed weak sales of the American dollar. Players not strongly worry about fall of a rating of the USA as basically it has been put in an US dollar exchange rate. And before opening of the auctions in the market of heroes of the festivities - States hardly there will be essential shifts. By 12:30 Moscow time the course of pair euro/ dollar was established on a mark 1,43 dollars/ euro. But in the light of the developed circumstances, delay of growth of economy of the USA, debt problems, uncertainty of business and a high rate of unemployment, FRS the USA can start the next round of quantitative softening.
professor Nju - Jorksky university, head Roubini Global Economics of Nuriel Rubini so makes comments on occurring events: “ Has come true - the third wave of quantitative softening already consider necessary. In my opinion, it will occur more close by the end of current year, however the measure will be from a series “ it is not enough and too late “. Last year 600 mlrd the dollars, allocated for purchase Treasuries, and the whole trillion dollars of tax indulgences have given to economy of the USA of 3 % growth in IV quarter. However already to in first half flowing we have returned to 1 %. Now to allocate such sum there is no possibility “.
“ I Am afraid that the third wave of quantitative softening will change nothing “ - the professor continues. “ last time this measure has led only refljatsii some actives, and the lion`s share of means has settled on balances of banks. The effect in real economy was almost zero. Was considered that the dollar which has weakened as a result of quantitative softening, will benefit the American exporters. It is valid so, however the general economic benefit was levelled at the expense of the dollar prices for raw materials which have proportionally grown “ - has added N.Rubini.
our forecast for the rest of current year is that: gross national product gain on the average at level of 2 %. In the sum for 2011ã. It will give 1,5 % of gross national product is twice less, than 3 % the growth which is considered normal for a post - crisis restoration. The picture unfavourable and if to add here unemployment which will start to grow again till the end of current year, it will turn out is rather disturbing. 2012ã. It will be hardly better, and it specifies all in possibility of the real recession.
thus, in expectation of QE - 3 it is necessary to sell dollar against other currencies. But/ dollar or the Swiss franc/ the dollar is better to refuse by the current moment euro pair - the probability is too great that in a case with an eurozone EU currency will fall rates advancing dollar, and in a case with the Swiss franc - it is possible to expect interventions from the Central Bank of this country. The best choice in this situation - raw currencies - the Canadian and Australian dollar, they will receive the greatest odds from new round QE - 3.