South Korea one of the first has increased the rateOn Thursday, on January, 13th, the Central bank of South Korea has unexpectedly lifted base discount rate on 0,25 percentage points - from 2,5 % to 2,75 %. Such decision was accepted following the results of Committee session on credit - the monetary policy of the South Korean Central Bank. The given decision was astonishing for the analysts expecting that the Central Bank will leave the key rate without changes.
the decision of the Central Bank of South Korea explains to that key discount rate at former level (2,5 %) is unacceptable at the account of such factors, as indicators of economic growth and inflation. Growth of consumer prices in the country has reached level of 3,5 % in December 2010ã. Basically at the expense of rise in prices for oil products and agricultural production, it is marked in the committee report. Experts of the Central Bank predict increase in inflationary expectations the next months in process of continuation of economic lifting and growth of the world prices for raw materials.
the Chief of analytical department IK “ Tserih Kepital Management “ Nikolay Podlevsky notices that the period of universal decrease in interest rates has ended with the world Central Banks in 2010. Then long time could be characterised a situation as an epoch of deduction of low interest rates. It was combined with additional monetary stimulation. But also this epoch gradually approaches to end. Banks of the largest countries still continue to keep very low rates. So, in December has kept interest rates FRS the USA. At sessions ETSB passing on January, 13th and Bank of England too have kept low interest rates.
however, according to the expert, the number of banks which have started to raise the rate gradually grows also. The rate was raised already in Australia, Israel, by India. Raised the interest rate China twice. Here the turn has reached and to South Korea - on January, 13th there the rate is raised on 0,25 % from 2,5 % to 2,75 %. South Korea in 2010ã. Already repeatedly lifted the rate. And, nevertheless, increase of rates by South Korea became on January, 13th for many unexpectedness, though growth of consumer prices in the country in December 2010ã. Has reached level of 3,5 %.
“ In itself next increase of the rate by South Korea does not render serious influence on the markets though in the weakness of the market fixed on January, 13th, it is possible to try to see and this component. However increase of the rate is much more important, as more and more distinct signal of change of a tendency. When the turn will reach the largest countries, but influences on the markets will be much more considerable “ - has summed up N.Podlevsky.
According to the chief of analytical department IK “ Grandis the Capital “ Denis Barabanova, the countries Jugo - East Asia are compelled to raise rates from - for expectations of growth of inflow of the speculative capital and increase of inflationary expectations. Yesterday the rate was lifted also by Bank of Thailand. Therefore the decision of Korea does not surprise, especially national economy shows impressive successes. I do not think that this event as - that will affect moods of the Russian market. If growth of rates in Asia proceeds, first of all, in China it will be the negative factor for all markets, but at present all attention is directed for the begun season of the quarter reporting to the USA.
the director for the analysis of the financial markets and macroeconomic UK “ the Alpha - the Capital “ Vladimir Bragin considers that, most likely, the Central Bank of South Korea has seriously reflected that economy revival can be replaced by its overheat and spends preventive measures. The set example is indicative that the similar problem faces the Russian Central Bank which against growing inflation and normalisation of macroindicators can begin increase of rates. It is next occasion to reflect to holders of rouble bonds who will suffer from negative revaluation owing to increase of market profitableness.