Rus News Journal

The Iranian nuclear question on - former influences oil

the World prices for oil on Friday, on January, 13th, grow against intensity round the Iranian nuclear question. Thus during the auctions on January, 13th the price for oil of mark Brent exceeded a mark in 112 dollars/ barr. Against intensity strengthening in Nigeria. At the same time in Europe some discharge of conditions round debt crisis after successful auctions on placing of state bonds of Spain and Italy in which course the great demand on papers was observed is observed.

as of 13:12 Moscow time on January, 13th the prices under transactions with oil futures made (dollars/ barr.) :
- IPE Brent Crude - 11,62 (+0,57) at a range of quotations 110,78 - 112,24;
- Light, Sweet Crude Oil (February) - 99,63 (+0,53) at a range of quotations 99,12 - 100,19.

we Will notice that the situation with the Iranian nuclear problem continues to disturb the markets as can outgrow in an energy crisis. Earlier European diplomats have informed that planned embargo concerning oil branch of Iran can be entered within 6 months. We will notice that representatives of EU have already reached the basic agreement concerning introduction of embargo on import of oil from Iran against the growing provocative nuclear program of the country, but have not co-ordinated a detail, in particular a prospective Date of Introduction of embargo.

the EU countries dependent on the Iranian oil, suggest to keep current contracts on delivery of the Iranian hydrocarbons for the term from one month about one year. In this time the states can find other supplier, and after preferential the period embargo will be entered. Greece insists on long preferential the period while the Netherlands, Germany, Great Britain and France are ready to enter embargo within three months. The day before sources in diplomatic circles of EU have told that introduction of an interdiction for import of the Iranian oil in six or more months, an interdiction for import of petrochemical products - in three months can be the conciliatory proposal.

however, according to analysts, the Iranian question - a long-term theme which cannot cause the sudden termination of deliveries of oil. Much more at the moment the market is puzzled with strike of workers of petroleum industry in Nigeria which can pour out in fault with deliveries of hydrocarbons from region.

an analyst VTB the Capital Andrey Krjuchenkov notices that futures for oil on Thursday have lost intraday growth at extremely volatilnyh the auctions: in the late evening as in London, and New York there was a decrease. First price Brent has reached two-month maxima with the advent of news that striking oil industry workers in Nigeria nevertheless will stop oil recovery and gas since Sunday. WTI again has shown lagging behind dynamics from - for adverse macrostatistics of the USA, including growth of weekly references behind the unemployment benefit. Thus the spirit in market WTI already has been impaired a little: the increase in warehouse stocks of oil in the USA on a week which is coming to an end on January, 3rd, has exceeded expectations. As a result both markets were rolled away from intraday maxima, and Brent it was not possible to overcome level 115 dollars, and its price has fallen again more low 200 - a day sliding average in a direction to intermediate support at level 108 dollars after breakdown 112 dollars

In Nigeria the largest trade union of workers of oil-extracting industry PENGASSAN declared readiness to stop oil recovery and gas since Sunday if the government does not cancel the decision on refusal of fuel grants. It is remarkable that from - for current strikes navigable company Maersk Line has appeared is not capable to unload the goods intended for Nigeria in country ports. Quickly to suspend extraction uneasy, therefore it is improbable that in the near future the Nigerian export of oil making 2 million a bar./ days, completely will stop (in addition national economy strongly depends on export of hydrocarbons), experts have underlined. Nevertheless the oil market remains very sensitive to any faults with deliveries, considering growth of geopolitical intensity in the Near East and especially fears concerning deliveries through strait of Ormuz from - for threats of Iran it to block. And. Krjuchenkov notices that the basic consumers nizkosernistoj the light Nigerian oil surpassing in quality Brent and WTI, are the USA and Europe. Also that is remarkable, in the European market of physical oil growth of awards to the price for separate regional grades (especially Azeri Light and Urals) since some large players have started to search actively for alternative sources of deliveries to a case of the termination of export from Nigeria is already observed.

the auctions on Friday, in all probability, will be characterised again raznonapravlennoj by dynamics against a new descending trend, including before approach on Monday of term of repayment of the February contract on Brent and in the conditions of gradual decrease in the award for risk after jump of the prices in the beginning of January when some players fixed profit. Fears concerning faults with oil deliveries while will continue to support to the prices in the conditions of the general nervous conditions in the market. However potential reduction of prices in case of occurrence of a wave of pessimism or a dollar exchange rate rebound all the same will be limited.

we consider that the potential of growth of price Brent on - former is limited by level in 114,7/ 115 dollars only weak support Brent will feel at level 111 dollars from which its price on Friday can fall to a mark 108/ 07 dollars. In case of WTI recoil to level 98 dollars, and then and to 97 dollars if falling below 100 dollars, the event overnight, gets character of a steady trend is quite probable. Short-term level of resistance of price WTI, by our estimations, on - former makes 103,5/ 7 dollars - the expert has concluded.

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