Rus News Journal

The prices for oil of mark WTI have fallen to 5,5 %

the Prices for the American oil have fallen on Thursday to 5,5 %, having finished day on minimum for last two months level. The anxiety of investors concerning growth of stocks of oil to the USA and world economy conditions became the reason of negative dynamics. Thus mark Brent has managed to be closed in positive territory - players have reacted to news that the market can miss Nigerian deliveries from company Royal Dutch/ Shell Plc.

Following the results of the auctions on Thursday, on February, 12th, on New York Mercantile Exchange the price of the future contract for oil of mark WTI with delivery in March has decreased on 1,96 dollars, to 33,98 dollars/ barr. On InterContinental Exchange in London the March contract on oil Brent Crude has risen in price for 0,37 dollars, having closed on a mark 44,65 dollars/ barr. Period of validity of March contract has expired on February, 12th. The price for the April contract has grown on 0,71 dollars, having reached 46,03 dollars/ barr.

According to the data of the Department of Energy of the USA, last week oil stocks have increased by 4,7 million barr., to 350,8 million barr. According to department, for last 20 weeks stocks of crude oil grew 18 times, as a result having reached the maximum volume since July 2007. Increase of stocks oil passes against serious reduction of demand for oil. So, under forecasts of consulting company Wood Mackenzie, during the current year oil consumption in the world will decrease on 1,7 %, to 84,3 million barr. In day.

earlier the forecast of world demand for oil on 2009. Has lowered the International power agency (MEA). By organisation estimations, during the current year consumption oil in the world will decrease on 980 thousand barr. In day. Forecast MEA is more optimistical, than expectations Wood Mackenzie and the Department of Energy of the USA. In the last believe that demand for crude oil will decrease in comparison with 2008. On 1,2 million barr. In day.

Additional pressure upon the market on Thursday was rendered by the information from a labour market in the USA. According to last data, for last week January the number going on the dole in the country has grown on 11 thousand and has reached record level in 4,81 million persons.

world economic recession continues to make negative impact on demand on oil. Despite considerable curtailment of production of the OPEC, rates of reduction in demand still advance rates of reduction of extraction that conducts to considerable accumulation of stocks. we continue to hold the opinion that weakness of economy will render much more a greater influence on demand for oil, than is currently put in a consensus - the supply and demand forecast - the group economist on power Deutsche Bank Adam Siminski in the weekly review has noted. In bank have lowered the forecast of the prices for mark WTI on I and II quarters 2009. With 45 to 40 dollars/ barr. And with 50 to 47 dollars/ barr. Accordingly.

the Situation becomes complicated falling of level of loading of oil refining factories. while the OPEC, most likely, carries out undertaken on curtailment of production, the effect from extraction decrease is weakened by low operating ratio of oil refining capacities in the world, mainly in the countries OESR - analysts BNP Paribas mark. So, in the USA the factor of loading NPZ has decreased last week with 83,5 to 81,6 %.

Meanwhile the OPEC does not intend to recede from an object in view to return balance on the market of oil and to promote a rise in prices to 70 - 80 dollars/ barr. As the minister of petroleum industry of Algeria has declared the day before Shakib Helil, probability of that at the next session of the OPEC in March the decision on additional reduction of extraction will be accepted, makes 50 %. According to S.Helilja, currently the organisation has executed 85 % of the obligations taken on on manufacture decrease. We have reached 85 % that is exclusive achievement, the minister has told. - to the beginning of session we, probably, will reach 100 % .
Department of the analytical information