In 2009ã. The economy of the USA will continue to plunge into recessionthe Situation in economy of the USA continues to worsen, and, as consequence, the reconsidered forecasts of economists become more and more pessimistic. Current recession will last at least three years, and is possible, and longer if in the credit markets life does not renew, the investors specialising on problem debts and bankruptcies consider, informs on February, 12th Reuters. “ It will be accident on three - four years “ - operating partner KPS Capital Partners Michael Psaros has declared. However “ great recession “ in which there were United States, will open to investors in problem actives unprecedented possibilities, he has added.
According to last poll The Wall Street Journal in which 52 economists participated, the macroeconomic statistics and arriving signals about state of health of the American economy force to reconsider forecasts of gross national product of the country towards fall. On this background investors do not try to seize the moment “ naisilnejshego pessimism “ and prefer to stand aside from the actives, which else recently cost more expensive in times.
it is possible to speak at once about the several adverse factors aggravating a situation in the American economy, and all of them testify that it while is far from recover. According to estimations of experts of the Center of development, the situation on a labour market in America continues to worsen sharply. Fast reduction of workplaces and, hence, population incomes should influence cumulative private consumption. “ the prices for real estate continue to decrease, as a result already every sixth American family which has bought habitation on a mortgage, possesses the negative capital - the debts on a mortgage loan exceed current cost of habitation. Reduction of prices pushes the population to refusal of preservation of the property rights and a rearrangement of all financial problems on banks which, becoming proprietors of the fallen in price habitation, try to fix the losses, urgently selling real estate that reduces market prices " even more; - analysts write. Besides, in January of sale of new cars in the USA were reduced to 37 % in comparison with December 2007ã. Also have made 9,6 million cars in annual expression. It is the lowest indicator of sales for last 27 years. “ Americans, having lost possibility to obtain new credits for maintenance of the consumption, are compelled to limit inquiries and to start to save up means. As a result after the long period of a finding at negative level the norm of private savings left in a positive zone “ - speak in the development Center.
recover of economy of the USA will begin with situation stabilisation in the credit markets. How it is soon possible to expect such restoration, expert opinions disperse. “ the central problems of the American crisis are a state of affairs in financial sector (how quickly it will restore the capital and will begin normal interaction with real sector) and dynamics of a consumer demand which was the basic engine of gross national product of the country throughout last decades “ - speak in the development Center.
(and not only) it is necessary for government of America to stimulate a consumer demand as demand stagnation conducts to manufacture decrease, analyst GK " agrees; Alor “ Anna Ljukanova. It is as a result formed “ a snow clod “ such what when - that was formed in the mortgage market, and can, and it is more. It is not excluded, the expert assumes that recover first signs will come from the habitation market where the period of reduction of prices will be replaced by positive dynamics that will testify to the renewed growth of demand.
analyst UK “ the Alpha - the Capital “ Maxim Simagin believes that in first half 2009ã. The American economy will continue to plunge into recession. In the base assumption the expert considers that all actions of the American authorities, the new anti-recessionary plan of president Barack Obama, scale programs of the Ministry of Finance of the USA on support of house owners in repayment of mortgage loans, and also stimulation of consumer crediting and the repayment “ problem actives “ will bear the first fruits not earlier than the second half of the year. Probably, then the credit markets will start to be restored, and the credibility gap will be overcome.