Commerzbank: crisis in Russia only beginsHere some days rouble does not depreciate in relation to bivaljutnoj to a basket. However, as analysts Commerzbank believe, to say that the economic situation in Russia was stabilised, early. In Russia former risks remain: reductions of currency reserves, falling of rouble and problems in bank system. Apparently, crisis in Russia only begins.
the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as well as promised, has kept a rouble exchange rate to bivaljutnoj to a basket, and now it makes approximately 40,50 rbl. But whether it was possible to Bank of Russia to convince the market what the rouble will become stronger again? “ it is necessary to be the big optimist to answer this question positively, - analysts Commerzbank believe. - Pressure upon rouble has temporarily stopped not because the markets consider fair a rouble exchange rate, and from - for liquidity decrease in financial sector. For 5 days the volume of auctions REPO has decreased with 375 to 175 mlrd rbl. It was followed by decrease and bank demand for dollar. It is not excluded even that banks have translated a part of the actives from dollars in roubles to raise liquidity of home market “.
the Central bank managed to stabilise for any time rouble, however it has led to occurrence of a new problem. From - for decrease in liquidity the situation in bank sector has even more become complicated. That rate REPO lately would grow all on 100. The item was possible to achieve only thanks to banks of own dollar reserves as the buffer. As a result now it became much more difficult to them to pay own debts nominated in foreign currency that in turn has led to gamble concerning possible re-structuring of an external debt of the Russian bank sector estimated in 400 mlrd of dollars.
thus, in front of Russia there is almost unsoluble dilemma. On the one hand, long intervention which will support rouble, but will reduce currency reserves. With another, recent decrease in liquidity of rouble which though will support volume of gold and exchange currency reserves, but will weaken bank system. According to experts, simply to release rouble and to allow it to depreciate too not an exit as in this case for the Russian banks begins almost impossible to pay an external debt.
at present it is difficult to solve at once all problems of Russia. Even worse that each separate unresolved problem aggravates the others. But anyway if currency reserves are spent for rouble exchange rate maintenance at current level too many, pressure upon rouble will renew, analysts Commerzbank consider.
Department of the analytical information