Forecasts of analysts: profit fixingthe Optimism which has captured the Russian share market in first half of trading session of Thursday, on August, 13th, and caused by the results which have encouraged investors of session FRS the USA Is possible, has promptly come to naught after an exit of the next block of the data of the American macrostatistics. According to analysts, now dynamics of share platforms will depend on that, in what players more will believe: in signs of restoration of the USA or in a tightening of crisis processes. However at that time, while investors will be defined with strategy, the initiative remains in hands of speculators.
judging by character of the auctions, in the last couple of weeks in the markets were translated both sellers, and buyers, the deputy chief of analytical department " considers; Arbat the Capital “ Alexey Pavlov. “ while the world economy flounders on “ a bottom “ emerging markets are on “ dolemanovskih “ (Lehmann Brothers) levels, and the European actions bargain proceeding from animator P/ E at level 50õ “ - the expert speaks.
the excessive demand in such conditions, according to A.Pavlova, is improbable. On the other hand, everywhere signs let slow are visible, but restoration, and the financial markets roll in liquidity. “ on this background, naturally, nobody wants to pass a new wave of growth as it has already happened to the majority of investors in the spring. Thus, now ball speculators everywhere correct, and in such conditions all predictions per day forward have even less values, than usually “ - he underlines.
the expert believes that after rapid growth on Wednesday and some consolidation on Thursday on Friday, on August, 14th, domestic players will nonaggressively fix profit. That the Russian indexes now are near to local maxima, also speaks well for this scenario.
Besides decisions FRS, one more event which on Thursday has supported positive dynamics in the financial markets, steels promulgation of indicators of gross national product of an eurozone where, in particular, in Germany and France figures have appeared much better expectations, are marked by the deputy chief of department of trust management “ the Absolute of Bank “ Ivan Fomenko. The raw markets have reacted to this statistics growth.
at 16:30 Moscow time there was a block of the data of macrostatistics of the USA which have appeared mainly is worse than forecasts. So, in July retails whereas their growth, on the contrary, was expected have unexpectedly decreased that, in turn, testifies to low consumer activity of the population. The data from a labour market also has appeared worse expectations: the number of references behind the unemployment benefit continues to increase. Reaction of the Russian market to the left statistics was negative - growth of share indexes of the beginnings sharply to be slowed down.
the Further dynamics at the Russian auctions, according to I.Fomenko, will depend on what moods will appear dominating: whether there will be on the first place at players negative data from the USA, or, on the contrary, they will fade into the background, having given way to hopes of economy restoration.
as marks operating actives UK “ the Everest Esset Management “ Andrey Bush, the market bargains in a narrow range of an order of 10 %, and there will be no yet cardinal changes in representation of investors about current both future incomes of the companies and prospects of restoration of economy, it is not necessary to expect serious growth.
However, A.Bush, in connection with strong perekuplennostju world stock markets adds, and also in high relative cost of actives forthcoming weeks in case of negative surprises can expect serious correction (10 - 15 %). Within the next few days the expert expects returning of indexes of RTS and the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange in area of 1000 points.
“ Till the end of summer we do not expect essential change of domestic share indexes “ - trader IFK " has noted; Metropol “ Michael Manasjan. Lateral dynamics in the market of the Russian actions, in its opinion, remains to the most probable. However in the autumn the expert does not exclude correction in the Russian stock market which, in its opinion, can make 20 - 25 %. Such movement can be observed by the end of September, he believes.