Rus News Journal

Precious metals: FRS will continue to inflate gold a bubble

On Thursday, on August, 12th, growth of precious metals has renewed. Their official spotovye the prices following the results of session in New York have made: gold - 1214,5 dollars/ ounce (+1,3 %), silver - 18,07 dollars/ ounce (+0,95 %), platinum - 1535 dollars/ ounce (+0,66 %), a palladium - 473 dollars/ ounce (+0,86 %). It has allowed an occasion to start talking again about forthcoming long-term growth of gold.

according to analysts Standard Bank in spite of the fact that the prices for gold have fallen from a historical maximum 1265 dollars/ the ounce, reached in June, to 1170 dollars/ ounce in July, experts on - former believe that in quotation half a year point 1300 dollars/ ounce be reached. we also expect that in 2011. And 2012. The market of gold will get steady support. Nevertheless rates of increase of the prices these two years can c as real interest rates will be raised from current low levels - experts of bank speak.

the basic source of support for the gold market is the investment demand. Now the prices for this precious metal continue to get good support, despite system risks in the financial markets and economic confusion. Analysts Standard Bank believe that in the long-term period world liquidity and real interest rates will be drivers of the market of gold. Thus both factors will favour to an investment demand. However to 2012. In bank predict decrease in rates of increase of liquidity and increase of real interest rates.

simultaneously experts Standard Bank express anxiety concerning probability of the further reduction of demand from the jeweller industry. So, with 2000 on 2009. The share of jewels in the general demand for gold has fallen from 80 % to 41 %.

Analysts of bank believe that the average price of gold will exceed expenses for its manufacture in 2011. However long-term prospects of the market, in their opinion, more neopredelenny, in particular if Central Banks will start to extort superfluous liquidity from a financial system. The limiting cost price of manufacture of precious metal currently makes approximately 850 dollars/ ounce. If growth of expenses makes about 10 % a year, to 2012. Manufacture cost can exceed 1000 dollars/ ounce, have counted up in Standard Bank. However unlike many raw goods land stocks of gold are great. Therefore the prices for it can fall below level of expenses for manufacture. However, in long prospect the curve of expenses can define a minimum for the prices for gold.

According to the forecast of experts Standard Bank, within the next six months of the price for gold can reach 1300 dollars/ ounce and in 2010. On the average to make 1180 dollars/ ounce, in 2011. - 1240 dollars/ ounce, and in 2012. - 1280 dollars/ ounce.

thus, ultrasoft monetary policy FRS and other regulators will continue to inflate a bubble in the gold market. And, probably, well, what exactly in this market: it is very narrow also falling of the prices for jewelry slightly will affect world economy prospects.
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