Rus News Journal

The forecast for week: the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange can decrease to 1330 points

Session FRS the USA upon which rested hopes investors, has not justified expectations and could not bring clearness in dynamics of stock markets. The macrostatistics also has not helped, as the negative data from the USA alternated with rather positive of Europe. As a result the most part of the last five trading sessions (9 - on August, 13th) the Russian market stayed in red to a zone. As a result many actions look resold. According to analysts, it can give an occasion to moderate optimism in the end of the next week, however in its beginning the market can appear in the power bear moods.

predictably, occasions to rally continuation on leaving week were not any, therefore the markets have started to fall since Tuesday, sums up the auctions operating actives IK Grandis the Capital Andrey Tolstousov. Euro, it continues, has shown classical false breakdown 200 - day sliding to average (1,325), leaving on level 1,335 that has led to strong technical sales. As a result by Thursday, 12 avugsta, the euro has fallen even below level 1,285 (level of support in the ascending channel). Thus for incomplete five days of euro has done in total 200 points upwards and 500 points downwards - a record for the last 1,5 - 2 months! - the expert underlines. Under the pressure of such volatilnosti the prices for oil also have lost stability, and uncertain comments FRS the USA, as he said, only have added fuel to the fire.

even gold as the expert marks, began to behave a little predictedly. For example, it became cheaper against falling American actions. As a whole, as he said, it is possible to explain falling of the western indexes both the general uncertainty, and fears of increase of credit rates of China.

On such negative external background the Russian market did not have chances of breakdown of local levels of resistance which have developed in May (RTS index - 1514, a Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index - 1418 points). As a result falling of the Russian indexes, predictably, has made an order of 5 %, A.Tolstousov marks. perhaps, sharp falling of actions of the metallurgical companies which, truth, and have most of all grown from the beginning of August became unexpectedness for many. To explain it it is possible, in - the first, profit fixing as steelmaking actions have strongly risen in price for the last five weeks, and from the technical point of view began to look hotly . And, in - the second, there is also a fundamental explanation happened - demand for a steel falls (on it specifies the statistican of China) and therefore, in III - IV quarter it is possible to expect some reduction of prices on a steel - the expert considers.

as a whole for a week, considers And. Tolstousov, the Russian market has adequately cooled down - now it is at levels 3 - week prescription (on July, 22nd). Positively and that indexes have practically reached strong levels of support - 120 - day sliding averages: RTS index - 1430, a Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index - 1362 points. we believe that in first half of next week the market can seriously test these levels. However already now the majority blue counters on sentries ostsilljatorah look resold that gives an occasion to moderate optimism over the weekend. Moreover, we consider that ahead of us growth couple of weeks waits still, and we advise to investors to use decrease in the beginning of week for increase in a share of actions in a portfolio - A.Tolstousov has concluded.

the chief of analytical department IK Tserih Kepital Management Nikolay Podlevsky reminds that leaving week became week of continuation outlined in the beginning of August of correction. The markets to the beginning of August persistently stole up to strong levels of resistance, and the coming negative macroeconomic data could not stop their irrational optimism. Expectation of decision FRS the USA about the second wave of financial softening was one of explanations of this optimism.

however expectations have not justified. On passed on Tuesday, on August, 10th, session of Committee on open markets FRS of the USA (FOMC) rates remained at a minimum level 0,25 - 0 %. At the session which has taken place this very day of Bank of Japan rates too have been kept at a minimum level in 0,1 %. FRS has made the vague decision on the repayment of long-term exchequer bonds on the money received from service of mortgage bonds being on balance FRS. These are coupons and money from repayment of bonds. However, as the expert considers, these are very small money, and in the market they do not create new liquidity. That is instead of expected opening of the second program of financial stimulation while the decision only not to turn off the operating program is accepted, underlines N.Podlevsky.

As a result on leaving week in the markets correction which became much more expressive proceeded. Share indexes of the leading markets have sharply moved downwards, the prices for oil have gone down below 76 dollars/ barr. The index of the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange after long keeping of base above 1400 points has swept downwards, and following the results of a week level 1400 became powerful level of resistance. The same has occurred to RTS index, only there decrease there was even more powerful at the expense of dollar growth.

the news background next week promises to be sated, marks N.Podlevsky. Financial reports for II quarter 2010 are expected. From Comstar - OTS oil Gazprom bank the Renaissance (for the first half of the year 2010.) . However the basic attention of participants of the market will be chained again to the data from the market of habitation of the USA, a price index of manufacturers (PPI) and about industrial output volume in the USA.

but the most important, according to the expert, there will be that, how much deep there will be a correction passing now. participants of the market should understand, whether it will be simple correction of July growth or even growth from the middle of May or it will develop in something bolshee - the expert speaks. The question on will be the basic, whether aside already forgotten partially May level the market will move to 1200 points or will find forces for conquest of April heights near to 1500 points on a Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index. Very important here - whether below a lath the market is capable to fall to 1340 points. just coming week also should answer on a question on durability of the specified level - the expert considers.

the chief of analytical department of company Nettrader. ru Bogdan Zvarich also notices that indecision FRS became an occasion to correction strengthening. It has caused sales in the world markets, and the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index left the consolidation which have developed in the first week of August at level of 1415 points. Last days the market was stabilised at level of 1375 points, against the neutral macroeconomic statistics.

the next week the Russian market, in its opinion, can begin with attempts of correctional growth, however renewal of negative dynamics that will be promoted by an external background further is possible. The macroeconomic statistics from the USA becomes the basic driver for the world markets. Thus the season of the reporting of the American companies comes to naught, and its influence is reduced to dot, the analyst considers. The attention of players will be turned to China where negative signals, as from outside statisticans are possible, and from the Central Bank.

From the technical point of view the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index current week has punched the short-term ascending trend originating from minima of July and 200 - hour eksponentsialnuju sliding average that can speak about a market turn. The nearest support, in a current situation, for an index level of 1350 points can serve, and the area of 1330 points where at a present situation takes place the ascending trend constructed on minima of May and July " can become the nearest purpose of decrease; - the expert believes.

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