Rus News Journal

Demand for oil in intermediate term prospect will increase

At the moment in global economy there is accurate enough differentiation between the basic consumers and manufacturers of oil. To the first, the countries which are a part of the Organization of economic cooperation and development (OESR) concern the second - members of the OPEC. Thus as the key indicator for forecasting of demand for oil it is accepted to use the data about changes in economy of the USA: it is considered, what exactly this country is the basic world consumer oil . Besides, considerable influence on the global market of oil is rendered by countries of Western Europe and the Peoples Republic of China - an essential part of hydrocarbons consumed in them is imported.

besides the OPEC, formation of the offer of oil in the world is influenced also by the former members of the USSR, first of all Russia. A share of these countries in world production of oil following the results of III quarter 2009. Has made 16 %, thus their share in universal consumption has made 5 %.

high enough concentration of suppliers of oil on the world market allows to speak about controllability of the prices. So, during crisis turbulence demand for hydrocarbons in the global market has strongly enough decreased that, accordingly, has led to falling of the prices. However at the same time suppliers of oil proportionally reduced extraction that has allowed to brake a slump of prices at effective level with the account sduvanija a bubble .

At process of change of global demand for oil it is possible to allocate a number of features. In - the first, do not occur sharp fluctuations of requirement in oil - reduction of demand from the developed countries is compensated by its increase in other world, and as a whole it leads to steady enough growth of global demand for energy carriers. In - the second, recurrence of changes of world demand for hydrocarbons is accurately enough traced.

as to the oil offer the market is arranged under dynamics of the prices which during crisis have decreased under influence sduvanija generated earlier a bubble . Accordingly, in second half 2009. After some lifting of quotations of oil its offer has increased also.

According to the forecast of the Department of Energy of the USA (United States Department of Energy), demand for oil in the world in 2011. Will grow to 86,65 million barr. In day that assumes its increase during 2011. On 1,47 million barr. The given forecast is quite realised on two reasons. In - the first, proceeding from recurrence of changes of demand for oil similar growth is quite possible, however, that it became a reality, in 2010. There should be a correction of demand towards fall approximately on 1 million barr. It in turn will well enough be co-ordinated with the forecast of the International power agency (MEA) according to which such correction and is expected. In - the second, regenerative growth of consumption in leading economy of the world by the end 2010., Most likely, itself will settle, and in 2011. The steady increase in demand proportional to lifting of economy will already go.

according to the leading economist of Moscow branch UBS AG Klemensa to the Column, in 2010. World demand in 85,3 million barr is predicted. In day, that is at level of III quarter 2009. During the same time expected Ministry for the Power Generating Industry of the USA growth on 1,5 million barr. In 2011. It is similar to the increase observed in 2007., which became a consequence of steady lifting of world economy 2004 - 2006. Achievement of so high indicator will depend on increase in demand at oil in emerging markets.

an analyst Arbat the Capital Vitaly Gromadin believes that it is possible to consider the forecast of demand for oil of Ministry for the Power Generating Industry of the USA optimistical enough. According to the published data, already in 2011. Demand on oil in the world will exceed level 2008. (85,75 million barr. In day). However, according to the expert, it basically is possible not earlier 2013. Slow restoration of demand for oil causes the point of view about energy crisis possibility: demand increase along with renewal of lifting of economy will lead to sharp reduction of free capacities of the OPEC and reduction of the saved up stocks of oil in the world. Thus demand growth will be almost completely caused by consumption increase in the states which are not entering in OESR. Thus, leading investment banks in the intermediate term future predict the prices for oil near to 100 dollars/ barr. Or it is considerable above. But demand estimations are in the habit to be reconsidered every month proceeding from a current situation. Therefore in case of new economic shocks of expectation of demand for oil will be corrected.
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