Volume ZVR the Russian Federation has returned on beginning level 2009ã.In a situation of conditionally free rate of exchange regulation of level of gold and exchange currency reserves is the major tool of a macroeconomic policy. If demand for currency considerably exceeds the offer the Central Bank sells a part of reserves and keeps a course bivaljutnoj baskets within the limits of the established corridor. In a return case the Bank of Russia buys up currency from the market. Thus, there is almost direct correlation between a course change of rouble and change of volume of the international reserves.
by calculations Quote. ru, the course change of the Russian currency on 85 % depends on movement of quotations of oil. Each dollar on which oil cost grows, adds approximately 15 copeck to a rouble exchange rate concerning the American currency and nearby 1,6 mlrd dollars to size of the international reserves of the country. Besides, the Bank of Russia regularly spends revaluation of reserves that more often and causes their minor alterations.
According to the published Central Banks on January, 14th to the data, volume of the international reserves of the Russian Federation for January, 8th 2010ã. Made 440,9 mlrd dollars against 440,6 mlrd dollars for January, 1st of this year Thus, growth ZVR from January, 1 till January, 8th 2010ã on 0,3 mlrd dollars (or 0,07 %) first of all is connected with effect of revaluation.
analyst NOMOS specifies in this effect - bank Ilya Ilyin also: “ As the Central Bank did not spend any operations, an insignificant gain, on - visible, is connected with revaluation of the currencies making ZVR. For the specified period of euro has become stronger in relation to dollar a little, at the same time decrease in courses of pound and yen to the American currency has rendered levelling effect “ - the expert has noted.
According to forecast Bank of America - Merrill Lynch, the average price of oil in 2010ã. Will make 85,3 dollars/ barr. And by the end of the year 94 dollars/ barr can reach. This estimation means increase in the international reserves to 560 mlrd dollars
According to analysts IK “ the Three dialogue “ in 2010ã. It is possible to expect increase in inflow of the capital that, in particular, it will be expressed in growth of the international reserves. Meanwhile it is not necessary to expect sharp increase in reserves, as the Central Bank in the end 2009ã. It was as much as possible eliminated from management of a rate of national currency. Most likely, we will observe gradual accumulation of reserves.
according to analysts “ Arbat the Capital “ at the moment the oil market to a lesser degree depends on fundamental factors, than from currency and financial. In these conditions the price of oil from a mark 80 dollars/ barr. Still can renew growth to 85 - 89 dollars/ barr. That there corresponds to level ZVR the Russian Federation in 450 - 455 mlrd the dollars
should be noticed that as of January, 1st 2009ã. The international reserves of the Russian Federation officially made 427,080 mlrd dollars, including is direct actives in foreign currency - 406,205 mlrd dollars the Volume of reserves has exceeded beginning level 2009ã. In December of the past year. Thus, the Central Bank has restored the means spent for maintenance of a rate of national currency in 2009ã. The maximum value - 596 mlrd dollars - the international reserves have reached in August 2008ã., then till April 2009ã. The Central Bank realised more than 200 mlrd dollars for maintenance of stability of rouble, even taking into account its devaluation almost on 35 %. Return of volume of reserves to level of August 2008ã. It is possible, if the price of oil reaches a point 95 - 100 dollars/ barr.
the International reserves of the Russian Federation represent vysokolikvidnye the financial actives, at the disposal of Bank of Russia and the government of the Russian Federation as of accounting date. The international reserves develop of actives in foreign currency, the monetary gold, the special rights of loan (SDR), a reserve position in IMF and other reserve actives.