Rus News Journal

Forecasts of analysts: Positive dynamics can remain

Despite the vigorous beginning of the auctions in the Russian market on Thursday, on January, 14th, following the results of day indexes and did not manage to show appreciable growth. The European central bank, predictably, has left discount rate without changes - at level of 1 %. However the data of macroeconomic statistics of the USA has considerably complicated a problem to bulls . In particular, according to published by the Ministry of Labour of the USA (US Department of Labor) to the data, quantity of primary references behind the unemployment benefit for a week which has come to the end on January, 9th 2010., in comparison with a similar indicator of previous week has increased by 11 thousand and has made 444 thousand Analytics expected that the indicator will make 437 thousand

According to experts, the risk of correction in the Russian market remains, as the basic attention of investors is chained to the expected reporting of the American companies. However in the near future the positive nevertheless can remain.

as operating director UK " marks; the Everest Esset Management Konstantin Demchenko, the market again enters in an oscillatory contour where its sensitivity to news gets essentially higher factor, than during usual time. This time not so pleasant surprise was presented by the data about retails in the USA for December 2009., though formally negative value has been compensated by revision of the similar data for November, the expert underlines. Moreover, the actual cumulative gain of sales volume for two months as a result has slightly exceeded the predicted.

however, adds K.Demchenko, has unpleasantly surprised not only size of the revision of the data (on 50 %), how many the fact of an exit of a negative indicator for December though all preliminary components of other reports predicted occurrence of rather confident data set. It is necessary or doubt the previous components, or to hope for the subsequent revision of the left data, he considers. we choose the second variant, we hope for closing of the market of the USA with small a minus within 0,3 % or near to a zero mark that will allow the Russian market to fluctuate on Friday only on 0,5 % below current levels - the expert has concluded.

according to an analyst of Probusinessbank Vahida of Valiev, risks of moderate descending correction while remain. However during the nearest sessions probably renewal of the progress level 1700 - 1730 on RTS index will be which purpose. To aggressive players the analyst recommends to buy in short term blue counters on recoils, and strategic - to wait more considerable correction.

the senior trader of a management company the Alpha - the Capital Natalia Zabula specifies that volumes of transactions with the Russian actions remain averages. despite an external positive which now remains, investors with watchfulness expect an exit of the reporting of the large American companies - the expert reminds. In its opinion, expectations are strongly overestimated, and much will depend on, whether they will justify. As a result volumes of the auctions at the Russian stock exchanges remain lowered as some players observe from outside and wait for an opportunity for an input in the market, she concludes.

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