Rus News Journal

Oil has fallen in price against negative macrostatistics

the Prices for oil have decreased on Thursday against the negative macroeconomic data across the USA. Following the results of the auctions on January, 13th, on New York Mercantile Exchange the price of the future contract for oil of mark WTI, with delivery in February, has decreased on 0,46 dollars, to 91,86 dollars/ barr. On InterContinental Exchange in London the February contract on oil Brent Crude has fallen in price on 0,06 dollars, having closed on a mark 98,06 dollars/ barr.

the oil Market has finished the auctions of Thursday in negative territory, despite beneficial effect of the weakening US dollar and encouraging auctions of the state promissory notes in Spain and Italy. The next macroeconomic data on a labour market to the USA which have impaired a little optimism of investors concerning rates of restoration of demand for oil became an occasion to decrease.

According to the data of the Ministry of Labour of the USA (United States Department of Labor), during a week till January, 8th the number of primary demands for the unemployment benefit has grown on 35 thousand units and as a whole has made 445 thousand indicator Deterioration became unexpectedness for analysts and the participants of the market expecting that its value will make 410 thousand This second decrease successively in which result the quantity of primary demands has increased to a maximum level from the end of October, 2010.

however, analysts do not show anxiety concerning such dynamics of an indicator. what unexpected and disappointing would not be value of an indicator, we should not forget about volatilnoj to the nature of this weekly data, in particular at this time year, - analysts Bank of Montreal mark. - It will be interesting to look, whether similar considerable growth next week " will repeat;.

Growth of number of primary demands for the unemployment benefit has been caused, most likely, seasonal factors and is not a crisis sign in a descending trend, - consider in Barclays Capital. - Historically quantity of primary demands (without correction on seasonal prevalence) in the first week of new year - one of the most considerable, it complicates correction on seasonal factors .

Similar reasonings became cold comfort for participants of the market, considering that for last two weeks the data of the Department of Energy of the USA (United States Department of Energy) has shown falling of demand for oil products on 8,2 %. As a result the positive dynamics observed in the market of oil in the beginning of day, against decrease in an US dollar exchange rate against euro, was replaced by decrease in quotations.

the Euro exchange rate on Thursday, on January, 13th, has grown against dollar after successful placing of the state promissory notes in Spain and Italy, and also owing to the statement of head ETSB Jean - Claude Trishe that inflationary risks can increase in an eurozone. On this background the uniform currency has become stronger against dollar on 1,6 %, to 1,3345 dollars/ euro.

also the oil market was influenced by words of the representative of one of member countries of the OPEC that the cartel will appoint an emergency meeting only in case the prices for oil will strongly become stronger above a mark 100 dollars/ barr. Prospect of break of level 100 dollars/ barr. Causes anxiety of rather potentially negative influence of the prices for fuel on process of restoration of economy. This opinion one of the higher officials of Libya, believing that has challenged the prices in 100 dollars/ barr. Will not put harm to world economy, therefore to convoke not next meeting of the OPEC or to increase volumes of extraction of necessity is not present.

the Positive forecast was let out by company Oil Movements tracing movement of oil tankers. According to analysts of the company, current month the OPEC will reduce volumes of shipment of oil to 0,9 %, to 23,51 million barr. In day, reduction in demand in the countries of Asia becomes the reason of that partly. Forecast Oil Movements does not include the data across Ecuador and Angola.

department of the analytical information