Rus News Journal

The Russian market while is in indecision

On Monday, on November, 15th, the auctions in the Russian share market have opened a moderate rise in prices of the majority of liquid papers. The external news background to the session beginning has appeared ambiguous. The American share indexes have finished Friday session by decrease, but it, most likely, has been won back by domestic stock market on Saturday. On Monday since morning futures for indexes of the USA slightly grew. The Asian stock exchanges showed raznonapravlennuju dynamics, truth, Japanese Nikkei has added more than 1 % against indicators of gross national product of the country which have appeared better expectations: gross national product of Japan in III quarter 2010γ. Has grown on 0,9 % in quarter calculation (on 3,9 % in annual) at the forecast of growth of 0,6 %. Industrial metals while mainly lose cost. Oil, on the contrary, tries to restore Friday losses partially. At 11:30 Moscow time quotations of mark Brent fluctuated about a mark 86,9 dollars/ barr.

And in the Russian share market after positive start both indicators have started to be rolled away smoothly to marks of opening and as a result have left on negative territory. It seems that participants of the Russian share market while are in indecision, is not excluded that the part from them has simply occupied waiting attitudes.

as a result by 12:30 Moscow time the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index has lost 0,09 % and has fallen to 1539,66 points, volume of the auctions on FB the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange by specified time has made 12,46 mlrd rbl. the Index by 12:30 Moscow time has decreased to 1598,28 points (- 0,49 %), RTS Standard - to 10503,26 points (- 0,17 %). The Total amount of the auctions in RTS by specified time has made 97,574 mlrd rbl., in RTS Standard - 3,367 mlrd the rbl.

As are considered by experts, in first half of day in the Russian share market lateral motion of quotations is not excluded, and sharp fluctuations of indexes will take place hardly. In second half of session the exit of the data of macrostatistics can influence the market. In the USA at 16:30 indicators of retails for October Moscow time will be published. As experts of the company " have underlined; Aton “ the average forecast of analysts specifies in probability of growth of total number of sales on 0,7 % in monthly calculation (against growth on 0,6 % month before) and retails without cars on 0,4 % in monthly calculation (growth for the previous period also has made 0,4 %). At 16:30 Moscow time FRB New York will publish the data of an index of business activity in industrial sector of region for November. At 18:00 Moscow time there are dynamics indicators commodity - material stocks of the country for September. Growth on 0,8 % after increase at 0,6 % by the period earlier is predicted.

Thus as experts have noted, as a whole the data is expected positive. However, analysts do not exclude that Friday pessimistic moods can be still won back with returning to the Russian market of the majority of investors. From the technical point of view for the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange it will be important to be kept above level of 1540 points as falling opens road for correction to 1480 - to 1500 points more low.

it is slightly better than the market by the current moment the sector of the power companies looks: “ RusGidro “ by 12:30 Moscow time has lost 0,06 % of cost. Holding MRSK actions have risen in price for 0,25 %, FSK EUROPEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY - on 0,27 %, “ Inter the Russian Open Society “ - on 0,44 %, “ Mosenergo “ - on 0,28 %, MOESK - on 1,99 %. As to last to the past week the company has published activity indicators for 9 months on RSBU. As analysts of Bank of Moscow have underlined, growth of pure and operational profit approximately twice allows MOESK to remain one of the most profitable companies among distributive networks. According to the experts, the average operational margin among MRSK by results of 9 months has made 12,8 % whereas in MOESK the corresponding indicator has reached 23,3 %. Multiple growth of profit MOESK basically is connected with increase in a gain from joinings that, experts specify, it can appear single event. The basic volumes of concluded contracts of technological joining had on 2007 - 2008γγ., and at a date of performance of contracts in 2 - 3 years gain reception under the given contracts is necessary on 2009 - 2010γγ. “ Further influence of the given factor can decrease: we will remind that at transition of networks on RAB - regulation the payment for technical joining can be completely cancelled. Nevertheless, we rather positively estimate efforts of management of the company on decrease in debts of clients under technical joining contracts. The actives received on the basis of technical joinings, will not enter into base of capital RAB, but the company can get a payment for their support. Considering that profit growth could be caused single events, further we do not expect essential reaction of the market to the published results “ - analysts summarised.

as a whole while the telecommunication segment not bad looks. Losses “ Uralsvyazinform “ by 12:30 Moscow time have made 0,08 %. Capitalisation “ severo - the Western Telecom “ has grown on 0,64 %, “ Sibirtelekoma “ - on 0,74 %, “ Volgatelekoma “ - on 1,25 %, “ TSentrtelekoma “ - on 1,97 %. Ordinary papers “ Rostelecom “ by specified time have fallen in price on 0,62 %, exclusive have risen in price for 0,09 %. MTS Stock quotes have fallen on 0,04 %.

In bank sector while there is no uniform dynamics: ordinary actions of the Savings Bank by 12:30 Moscow time have risen in price for 0,35 %, exclusive - on 0,56 %, the price of papers VTB has decreased on 0,57 %.

Oil tries to win back partially Friday losses, however it yet does not render appreciable support to actions of the Russian oil and gas companies. LUKOIL papers by 12:30 Moscow time have lost 0,23 % of the price, “ Rosneft “ - 0,37 %, “ Transneft “ - 0,23 %, “ Gazprom “ - 0,14 %, NOVATEKa - 0,18 %. Actions “ Tatneft “ by specified time have risen in price for 0,35 %, “ oil Gazprom “ - on 0,73 %, “ Surgutneftegaz “ - on 0,04 %. Past week NOVATEK has published results for III quarter 2010γ. On MSFO. As analysts " have noted; Uralsib Kepital “ the company gain in the accounting period has made 962 million dollars (+13 % in quarter expression). Both in roubles, and in dollars the indicator of gain NOVATEKa in the given accounting period has appeared the highest quarter indicator for all history of the company, though in III quarter demand for gas usually not the biggest. As a result of EBITDA has increased for a quarter by 18 %, to 451 million dollars, and profitability on EBITDA has grown on 2 items of the item, to 47 %. The net profit has increased on 39 %, to 329 million dollars, and pure profitability has shown growth on 6 items of the item

to Raznonapravlenno while the metallurgical companies bargain. Actions “ Nornikelja “ by 12:30 Moscow time have fallen in price on 0,63 %, “ Severstal “ - on 0,22 %. Quotations NLMK have grown on 1,73 %, MMK - on 0,58 %. The price of actions “ a gold Pole “ has risen on 1,07 %, “ Polymetal “ has decreased on 0,83 %.

Current week is rich on events and statistics. Therefore experts with care predict dynamics of the Russian share market. From the point of view of a deputy head of analytical department IK “ Sovlink “ Olga Belenkoj, the come week will force the markets to pay again steadfast attention to the American macrostatistics. Besides indicators of retails in the USA reports on inflation (Tuesday, environment), promproizvodstvu (Tuesday) and to new building (environment) will be the most significant. Now this data will be interpreted by the market any more in a context of their influence on decision FRS on necessity of injection in economy of new money, and from more fundamental positions. The consensus - the forecast assumes the accelerated growth of retails, positive dynamics promproizvodstva and the further delay of base inflation. On Tuesday, on November, 16th, the meeting of the European Ministers of Finance which results can lower fears of the markets concerning Ireland is expected, has underlined the expert. And as a whole, as experts if the statistics appears at level of expectations believe or will exceed forecasts, in the market ascending movement can begin.

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