The markets of Europe: bonds show again mixed dynamicsOn Tuesday, on May, 18th, in the market of the European state bonds the second day the mixed moods successively reigned. If to German Bunds participants of the market during bolshej parts of day practically did not show interest, hardly pozhivee bought up promissory notes of the French government English Gilts they very actively dumped. The reason - raznonapravlennye the data of macroeconomic statistics which have been published during the day and which mainly and defined character of trading operations in the market.
since the morning the statistics block has appeared in France. National statistical bureau Insee has given work market information according to which decrease in rates of restoration of the French economy and a response of stimulating measures compel the companies to reduce number of workers. The wages fund at the French enterprises (except for the companies of public sector, the enterprises of agriculture and individual businessmen) in I quarter of current year has decreased in comparison with IV quarter 2009ã. On 0,1 %. The Salary for the same period has increased on 0,7 %. To Reduce the staff do not stop even the large companies. In particular, Peugeot of Citroen which yet has not finished the program on decrease in costs. The president of France Nicolas Sarkozy warned earlier that expects unemployment peak in second half of year when will start to grow export and investments into the companies. Under forecasts of the Ministry of Finance of France, during the current year work in total will lose about 71 thousand persons. In 2009ã. The number of the unemployed has increased on 373 thousand It is no wonder that the left data has caused interest of players to promissory notes of the French government which prices have gone upwards.
the important macroeconomic statistics is closer by noon left in Germany, an eurozone and Great Britain. According to results of researches ZEW about moods in business circles, optimism decreases in Germany and an eurozone. It was promoted first of all by problems with record-breaking high budgeted deficit which stand not only in front of Greece, but also before many European countries. According to ZEW, indicator Survey (Economic Sentiment) - the indicator of expectations of investors and analysts of economic development in the nearest half a year - in Germany has decreased in May from April value 53,0 to 45,8 points (decrease to 47,0 points was expected). At the same time has surpassed expectations growth of an indicator of a current economic situation in Germany ZEW Survey (Current Situation) in May - about a minus 39,2 to a minus 21,6 points instead of 33,0 points expected a minus. Hardly more than indicator ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) eurozones - with 46,0 to 37,6 points (decrease to 38,0 points was expected) was predicted, has decreased in May.
Almost in full conformity with expectations there were indicators of inflation of an eurozone. The price index of consumers (CPI) in April has risen on 0,5 % (growth on 0,4 %) in comparison with March and on 1,5 % was expected (as well as was predicted) in annual calculation. The consumer price index which is not including the prices for energy carriers, foodstuff, alcoholic drinks and tobacco products (Core CPI) has grown, as well as analysts, in April on 0,8 % expected. Thus inflation in an eurozone has jumped up to maximum for the last 16 levels. Experts explain it to the most serious for last year jump of volume of export that, certainly, it is necessary to carry to a primary factor of growth of the European economy. Fallen more than on 17 % in relation to the American dollar the euro exchange rate supports a great demand on production of the European manufacturers. However simultaneously decreasing euro promotes growth of expenses for import production imported into region. As a result following the results of March of current year, proficiency of trading balance was reduced with 3,4 mlrd euro to 600 million euro. For a year proficiency of trading balance has grown with 2,4 mlrd euro to 4,5 mlrd euro.
this data, and also growth of quotations in the market of the European actions has not added interest to leading bonds of an eurozone - German Bunds. Demand for them remained low, and the prices gradually decreased.
but if the amplified inflationary pressure in a zone of the reference of euro has not caused growth of interest of participants of the market to protective actives the message on inflation growth in Great Britain has caused squall of active sales English Gilts. According to national statistical bureau in London, consumer price index growth (CPI) in April has made 0,6 % (whereas growth on 0,4 %) in comparison with March was predicted and 3,7 % (growth on 3,5 % was expected) in annual expression. Index Core CPI has grown in annual expression on 3,1 % that also has surpassed expectations (growth on 2,9 %).
Has surpassed expectations and April growth of retail prices. So, the retail price index, having risen in April on 1,0 %, has twice surpassed expectations (growth on 0,5 %). Above expectations there was also an annual gain of the retail price index: the indicator has risen on 5,3 % instead of expected 4,9 %. Annual growth of the retail price index which is not considering a mortgage, in April has made 5,4 % (the forecast - growth on 4,9 %).
Inflation in April has not simply surpassed expectations. Annual growth of consumer prices in April became the promptest with 2008ã. And now, as inflation more than on 1 items of the item Has exceeded established by Bank of England a barrier in 2 %, and in the second time after a three-monthly break, the head of Bank of England Mervin King is obliged to give to the Minister of Finance of Great Britain George Osbornu the plan of strengthening of control over inflationary pressure. “ the economy has a considerable reserve stock of capacity though the monetary authorities perfectly realise, the risk of a rise in prices " is how much great; - it is told in M.King`s post card. The head of the British Central Bank believes that inflation splash carries a temporality and masks weakness of the British economy. It is necessary to notice that the Bank of England last week warned department that inflation can exceed 2 % from - for inertly current process of restoration of national economy.
against these factors character of the auctions on Tuesday had the mixed character up to last minutes sessions. In last two hours interest to German Bunds has a little increased, and papers to closing of day, also as well as the French bonds, have considerably gone up in price. English Gilts following the results of day have fallen in price. Following the results of trading session at the London stock exchange profitableness 2 - summer Bunds Germany would decrease on 1. The item, 10 - summer - on 3. The item the Spread between them would be narrowed with 230. The item to 228. The item
Results of the auctions by the state bonds of Germany at the London stock exchange at 20:00 Moscow time:
Results of the auctions by the state bonds of Great Britain:
Results of the auctions by the French state papers:
On Wednesday, on May, 19th, the statistics about a situation in building sector of an eurozone will be published.
department of the analytical information