Rus News Journal

Emerging markets: the Central Bank of the Peoples Republic of China can replace a whip with spice-cake

the Past week (6 - on May, 13th) it has appeared not too successful for the largest emerging markets entering into group BRICS. Despite various statements of the monetary authorities of Europe and the USA, investors are not left by fears concerning prospects of the further restoration of world economy and success of the decision of variety of the problems which have remained after crisis. It should be reflected is negative on readiness of participants of the market to risk that is why they have preferred to deduce till the best times of means from risky actives which the papers bargaining in the markets of developing countries concern. Following the results of five trading sessions least the index of continental China Shanghai Composite which has grown up on 0,24 % has appeared the victim. The indicator of the market of India BSE 30 (Sensex) also has finished week in plus truth, less considerable - 0,06 %. Brazilian Bovespa in this time, on the contrary, has lost 1,8 %.

Emerging markets of Asia have begun the past week raznonapravlennoj dynamics of indexes with prevalence of a positive against the favorable data about a labour market condition in the USA and a rise in prices for the raw goods. Following the results of the auctions of Monday, on May, 9th, the index of region MSCI Asia Apex 50 has raised on 0,44 %, the index of continental China CSI 300 has added 0,27 %, Hong Kong Hang Seng - 0,76 %.

In the beginning of the past week of the Peoples Republic of China has published the macroeconomic data, according to which balances of trading balance of the country, unexpectedly shown negative result in I quarter 2011., again has returned to positive values. Following the results of April proficiency of trade of China has made 11,4 mlrd dollars, having reached a maximum from the beginning of this year. On it has informed country customs office. The presented indicator has appeared in 100 times more March proficiency (104 million dollars) And more than three times above, than a consensus - the forecast of the analysts interrogated Thomson Reuters. The last expected that in April the positive balance will not exceed 3 mlrd dollars Export of the Chinese goods has increased by 29,9 % for accounting month, as a whole having justified market expectations. And here import, on the contrary, increased insufficiently quickly - all by 21,8 % at the forecast in 28 %.

we Will remind, following the results of I quarter China for the first time with 2004. Has fixed deficiency of trading balance - at level 1,02 mlrd dollars Some experts believe that growing import together with a policy more focused on internal demand, will lead to reduction of proficiency of trade. Last years balance of trading balance of the Peoples Republic of China showed a tendency to decrease though remains positive. In 2008. It has made 295 mlrd dollars, in 2009. - 196 mlrd dollars, and last year - 183 mlrd dollars

Besides, past week the governmental economist of the Peoples Republic of China and the employee of the National commission of reforms and development of Van Tszjan has declared that China can lower base discount rate up to the end 2011. As he said, such succession of events is more probable, rather than a return step, namely increase of the key rate by Central Bank of the Peoples Republic of China. As the analyst has noted, easing of a monetary policy of China will be especially appreciable in IV quarter 2011. the Central Bank will be very cautious in a question of the further increase of base discount rate. More likely the Central Bank will go on its decrease in second half of current year - quotes Reuters words of the expert. Investments into fixed capital (the locomotive of economic growth) will be reduced against reduction of financing of new projects, believes Van Tszjan.

However following the results of first four months 2011. Investments into fixed capital have shown growth on 25,4 % in comparison with the similar period year before. Thus especially appreciable the indicator increase, according to the Chinese economist, was in April 2011. Reduction of investment projects together with a weak consumer demand and astable export can force to reconsider Beijing the macroeconomic policy. At present the government of the Peoples Republic of China considers struggle against inflation as the basic priority. the question consists in, whether China should continue to adhere to an anti-inflationary policy against decrease in rates of increase of economy - marks Van Tszjan.

the National bank of the Peoples Republic of China four times raised base discount rate since October 2010. Rate of increase of consumer prices in China following the results of April 2011. Has made 5,3 % in annual calculation, has informed earlier today National statistical bureau of the Peoples Republic of China. In spite of the fact that the published indicator has exceeded forecasts of the analysts assuming that growth of consumer prices in the country in April of this year Will make 5,2 %, in comparison with the last month growth of consumer prices was slowed down on 0,1 percentage points (in March 2011. Inflation in China has reached record for 32 months of an indicator in 5,4 %). Other macroeconomic data also testifies to some delay of activity in the Chinese economy that the sphere of action for aggressive measures of the government on toughening of a monetary policy narrows.

Van Tszjan advising the government of the Peoples Republic of China, believes that the monetary policy of China can be the tool of struggle against inflation only in the limited scale as consumer prices grow for the structural reasons (including from - for increases of salaries) which it is impossible to influence change of base discount rate. At the same time, according to the economist, the Central Bank of China will be and to raise further norm of reservation under deposits of banks. However it is not so much toughening of a monetary policy, how many the tool of counteraction to hit of excessive monetary weight in national economy.

by a weekend reserve requirements in the Peoples Republic of China have been raised again. On Thursday, on May, 12th, the National bank of China declared it. The specification of obligatory reservation since May, 18th is increased by 50 basic points. Thus, the Central Bank of China has raised reserve requirements in the fifth time from the beginning of year and in the eighth time since October 2010. Before the given specification did not raise since May 2010. The new level of reserve requirements established by the Chinese Central Bank, is record - 21 % from a total sum of deposits.

the Central Bank of China in every way tries to limit growth of consumer prices which is perceived by local functionaries as one of the basic threats of social stability. In April 2011. The annual rate of inflation in the Peoples Republic of China has successively exceeded the second month 5 %. Within the limits of struggle against inflation the Chinese authorities raise base rates of crediting, norm of reservation under deposits, and also directly regulate volumes of delivery of credits local banks.

have finished the auctions on Friday, on May, 13th, the markets of Asia raznonapravlennoj dynamics of indexes. Investors won back the next increase of norms of reservation by the Chinese Central Bank and weak the reporting of the Japanese companies injured with act of nature. By the end of the auctions in the markets has prevailed, as fears of investors concerning the further toughening of a monetary policy in the Peoples Republic of China has gradually started to give way to hopes that the authorities of China will refuse the further increase of rates. Following the results of the auctions of Friday an index of region index MSCI Asia Pacific has grown up on 0,2 %, Hong Kong Hang Seng has risen on 0,88 %, Indian BSE 30 (Sensex) has added 0,91 %, the index of continental China CSI 300 has raised on 0,85 %.

the Markets of Latin America past week looked is a bit more pessimistic against volatilnyh the prices for oil and the mixed macrostatistics. If in the beginning of week the indicator of Brazilian market Bovespa showed growth to its end it has left downwards, having finished a five-day week with considerable in comparison with other largest emerging markets losses. Retails in March in the country have grown on 4,1 % while their lifting on 4,45 % was expected, and the previous gain has made 8,2 %, the head of analytical department GK Broco Alexey Matrosov marks. Besides, additional pressure upon the market of Brazil was rendered, as he said, by such factors, as reduction of prices on raw materials and outflow of the capital from risky actives.
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