The forecast for week: Actions of the oil companies remain interestingto One of the main events of trading week 15 - on February, 19th there was unexpected decision FRS on increase of discount rate of crediting for banks. The markets have apprehended this step negatively, having regarded it as the beginning of turning of measures of support and, as consequence, liquidity compression. In the first days of forthcoming short working week (24 - on February, 27th) to the Russian investors will need to observe only behind behaviour of players in the foreign markets, thus after long days off the auctions will renew and in China.
dynamics of the domestic market next week will depend on, whether the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index above level of 1320 points can be kept. While “ to bulls “ it was possible, the assistant to the general director under investment analysis IK " marks; Tserih Kepital Management “ Andrey Vernikov.
During a week 15 - on February, 19th in the first echelon the moral superiority was on the party “ bears “ however in less liquid to actions (for example, in exclusive papers “ Tatneft “ and “ Surgutneftegaz “ and also ordinary actions “ Belona “) It was observed ostrozhnyj demand, the expert makes comments on a situation. In its opinion if essential decrease in the American market for long days off in Russia does not occur, demand can be thrown and on the action of the first echelon.
A.Vernikov considers that now oil papers as participants of the market understand are interesting to investors that last coil of growth of oil is not won back by the market. Meanwhile increase of quotations of oil actions does not occur, as players are afraid of reduction of prices on “ oil “ after the cold season termination.
among oil actions as the outsider recently acted “ Rosneft “ however, after investment houses have raised fair cost of its actions to 315 - 320 rbl., the situation began to change in the best I will shift, the analyst marks. “ if cataclysms will not occur, we will see, how investors sell bank papers and increase a share “ Rosneft “ in a portfolio. This process can be stretched for a month or two “ - expert IK " speaks; Tserih Kepital Management “.
If to consider the pessimistic scenario of sharp decrease in the American market for long days off the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index at opening of the auctions on Tuesday will fall to support level on 1280 points, A.Vernikov believes. A long-term reference point for investors level of 1200 points on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange (a place of passage 200 - day sliding as average), as he said, acts. If the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index falls below 1200 points, the Russian market will be considered not growing, and falling, the expert underlines.
the senior analyst UK “ the Everest Esset Management “ Sofia Ragulina reminds that on Monday, on February, 22nd, after celebrating of east New year the Chinese stock exchanges open. For trading week 15 - on February, 19th there were many events on which players in the Peoples Republic of China yet did not have a possibility to react. Among the most important - rate increase by National bank of China and increase in discount rate FRS the USA.
according to the expert while it is difficult to estimate, how much long there can be a reaction of participants of the market to these events. Nevertheless investors are inclined to react to negative events more likely, than to see in leaving news an occasion to growth, has added S.Ragulina.
according to an analyst of the company “ Aton “ Natalias Vygodinoj, forthcoming week promises to be the statistics extremely sated from the point of view of an exit in the United States. The data about the real estate market, an index of consumer confidence and volume of orders for the goods of long using will be published. Thus on Friday, as she said, it is necessary a main blow in the form of the publication of the data about gross national product for IV quarter 2009ã.
In last five trading sessions the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index was between marks 1300 - 1370 points. These levels remain actual and forthcoming week, the expert " believes; Atona “. Thus, as she said, both marks are the extremely important.
Probitie of level of support will lead an index of the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange to testing of a long-term ascending trend for 1220 points whereas resistance passage will allow the share indicator to come nearer to annual maxima around 1500 points “ - has concluded N.Vygodina.