Purchase of actives became the main means of struggle of Japan with crisisFollowing the results of the past on the eve of session Bank of Japan has left key discount rate without changes - at level of 0,1 %. As the Japanese Central Bank still had not enough space for maneuver in sphere of a standard monetary policy, it has made decision to increase monthly volume of purchase of state papers with 1,4 to 1,8 trln yens (18,3 mlrd dollars) .
According to analyst FK “ Opening “ Daniel Levchenko, acquisition of actives became the main tool used by a number of the central banks as possibilities for the further decrease in interest rates on short-term tools of refinancing at them any more does not remain.
the Limited possibilities of regulation of economy by change of interest rates change a direction of the appendix of efforts of the Japanese authorities. Bank of Japan, keeping the rate at extremely low level, simultaneously increases volumes of purchase of actives.
for support of real sector of economy in the end of January the government of Japan has started the program in cost 16,7 mlrd the dollars, directed on the repayment of actions of the companies which have appeared in a difficult situation in the conditions of an economic crisis. The Central Bank has started to get debts of the companies to give them access to liquidity. The authorities also have expanded possibilities of crediting of private business. But these measures yet have not broken a difficult situation in economy.
by calculations of experts, profits of the leading companies of Japan will be reduced approximately to 42,8 % the current financial year which is coming to the end on March, 31st. From - for a global economic crisis in Japan in February 2009ã. 1318 companies (on 10,3 % more than year before) have gone bankrupt. Cumulative debts of the Japanese firms which have suffered financial crash and the enterprises have made 1,23 trln yens.
not less actively authorities of the country support also bank sector. One of these days the Bank of Japan has informed that will consider repayment possibility subordinirovannyh bank debts. This measure is directed on stabilisation of a financial system and is exclusive step.
besides it, the Bank of Japan already makes purchase of the actions belonging to banks, however now the country authorities consider possibility to expand a spectrum of redeemed tools and to make purchases of exchange index tools. According to some information, the government of Japan can start the scheme in cost to 20 trln yens (205 mlrd dollars) . From its part the government of Japan will give guarantees on any losses which the Central Bank can incur.
efforts of the Japanese authorities have character of complex influence. So, redeeming actions of the companies which have appeared in a difficult situation, and, in case of approval, exchange index tools, the Bank of Japan oposredovanno helps banks “ to recover “ their balance. Reduction in price of actions of the Japanese companies leads to depreciation of portfolios of the actions belonging to Japanese banks. It in turn conducts to reduction of the capital of the financial organisations and gives rise to problems with liquidity in bank sphere as many banks cannot satisfy requirement of corporate financing. Risks for Japanese economy as a whole as a result increase.
integrated approach of actions of Bank of Japan, by estimations of analysts, does chances of success of actions rather high. However besides internal problems on Japanese economy press also external factors. National economy is extremely dependent on export, and record reduction of volume of export since November 2008ã. From - for demand easings in the world against recession involves sharp deepening of recession in the country.
at the deputy chief of department of trading operations “ Sobinbank “ Arthur Holaeva the condition of Japanese economy causes serious fears. “ All macroeconomic statistics on the country testifies to economic recession and recession: it both export falling, and growth of trading deficiency, and also gross national product reduction “ - the expert marks. On this background leading exporters most of all suffer. “ high integration of Japanese economy into the world makes negative impact. Global reduction in demand for consumer goods conducts to essential delay of development of national economy “ - underlines A.Holaev.
As a result the economy of Japan is not less dependent on the general condition of world economy, than all other countries, and without restoration of global economic growth appreciable improvements in separately taken country hardly are possible. Apparently, the further behaviour of Japanese economy will depend on development world and speeds of overcoming of crisis. According to A.Holaeva, restoration of solvent demand in world economy and first of all in the USA will be that defining factor which will allow to rise the Japanese industry.
at the same time, forecasts concerning world economy leave much to be desired. The day before the International currency fund has reconsidered the forecast of growth of world gross national product in 2009ã. Instead of expected before growth on 0,5 % of IMF now predicts world economy reduction on 0,6 %. According to experts of IMF, the volume of gross national product of the USA during the current year will be reduced to 2,6 % (previous, January, the forecast, assumed reduction on 1,6 %). Simultaneously experts predict reduction of gross national product of Japan on 0,5 %.